Jordan coping with burden of refugees (Osama Al Sharif, Arab News)

Jordan may revise its open border policy toward Syrian refugees depending on the outcome of a donor conference that will take place in London on Feb. 4. The kingdom’s struggling economy has been strained by the presence of over 1.3 million Syrians, half of which reside in refugee camps, amid official complaints that the international community has not done enough to support host countries.
King Abdallah, who will head his country’s delegation at the London meeting, has said the kingdom wants political decisions to be taken by countries that want to assist with the issue of Syrian refugees. Prime Minister Abdullah Ensour said that the world must bear responsibility for Syrian refugees or “we will say that we had had enough.”
Since the eruption of the Syrian crisis in 2011, Jordan has maintained an open border policy; receiving hundreds of thousands of Syrian refugees, mainly from southern Syria and hosting many in Zaatari camp. The kingdom has been a recipient of international and regional aid but the flow of support has been declining in recent months as the war in Syria stretched on. Now officials say that the international community has contributed only 36 percent of total cost of hosting refugees with the kingdom’s ailing economy covering the rest.
It is estimated that the cost of hosting Syrian refugees in Jordan is sapping one quarter of the kingdom’s estimated JD 8.5 billion ($12 billion) annual budget.
Jordan is expected to present a comprehensive plan to the London conference calling for direct financial support for its economy aimed at creating new jobs for both Jordanians and Syrians. Amman wants long-term investments and economic incentives in order to deal with the fact that Syrian refugees will be in Jordan for many years. Officials here refer to a UN study that claims that the average stay of refugees in host countries is about 17 years. Adding to the kingdom’s economic woes is the closure of borders between Jordan and Syria, which has denied Jordanian exporters overland access to Turkey and Europe.
According to recent census, Syrian refugees and others make up about 30 percent of the total population. Syrians now compete for jobs with Jordanians where the official unemployment figure stands at 13 percent. In addition to the financial burden, a local survey found that three quarters of Jordanians are now against allowing more Syrian refugees into the country.
Jordan has tightened security at its borders with Syria, but continues to receive tens of refugees on a daily basis. Recently it has resisted calls to allow an estimated 12,000 to 16,000 Syrians who are stranded in no-man’s land between Syria and Jordan. The authorities claim that they are infiltrated by Daesh and that they will not be allowed into the kingdom because they pose a security risk.
The presence of Syrians in Jordan has forced the government to think of long-term plans. Recently there has been talk about absorbing the “Syrian component,” which has elicited negative reactions from commentators and parliamentarians. But there is now a realization that Syrians will be here for many years and that Jordan needs international support to cover the cost of hosting them.
Meanwhile, the government is viewing with concern military developments in southern Syria. Since last December regime forces — backed by Hezbollah and Iranian Revolutionary Guard (IRG) fighters, and supported by Russian jets — have been waging a series of offensives to reclaim the strategic town of Sheikh Miskin from Free Syrian Army (FSA). Jordan has been keen on preserving the status quo in southern Syria to prevent the advance of Daesh and halt the flow of additional refugees.
With recent military gains by the regime in the south, Jordan is holding talks with Russia to protect its national security interests in southern Syria. It is worried that Hezbollah and IRG will soon deploy along its own borders with Syria. One of the issues that Jordan is raising is to create safe zones in southern Syria to prevent mass migration toward northern Jordan.
The international community is expected to respond positively to Jordan’s demands at the donor conference. It is cheaper to keep Syrian refugees in host countries than to be flooded by hundreds of thousands of asylum seekers, as was the case last summer in Europe. The US is expected to increase its annual aid package to Jordan to $1.6 billion for 2016. The GCC has pledged $650 million for this year as a grant.
But absorbing the Syrian component by allowing refugees to work legally and reside in the kingdom will create domestic opposition and boost xenophobic sentiments among Jordanians. The government appears to be ready to take that risk in light of worsening economic conditions and continued regional instability.