Early national surveys show a double-digit lead of 54 to 41 percent for Hillary Clinton over Donald Trump. His negatives (56 percent) are high compared to hers (49 percent), and she runs much stronger among women, Latinos, African-Americans, and young people. But national surveys can be misleading, though, because they conceal important patterns at the state level. Polls in Ohio, Florida, and Pennsylvania conducted by Quinnipiac University in May find close races in each state. In Florida, for example, Clinton held a narrow 43 to 42 percent edge over Trump. In Pennsylvania, she also led by 43 to 42 percent. However, in Ohio, Trump had a 43 to 39 advantage over her
http://www.brookings.edu/blogs/fixgov/posts/2016/05/16-unfamiliar-terrain-with-clinton-trump-match-west
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