The consequences of Brexit for UK trade and living standards (Swati Dhingra, Hanwei Huang, Gianmarco I.P. Ottaviano, Thomas Sampson, John Van Reenen, VoxEU)

The economic consequences of leaving the EU are at the heart of the Brexit debate. This column studies how changes in trade and fiscal transfers to the EU following Brexit would affect living standards in the UK. Across a range of scenarios, Brexit leads to lower income per capita, but the magnitude of the loss depends on what trade policies the UK adopts post-Brexit. To minimise the economic costs of Brexit, the UK would have to remain closely integrated into the Single Market.

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Swati Dhingra. Assistant Professor, Department of Economics, LSE

Hanwei Huang. PhD candidate in Economics at the London School of Economics

Gianmarco I.P. Ottaviano. Professor of Economics, LSE; Non-Resident Senior Fellow, Bruegel; and CEPR Research Fellow

Thomas Sampson. Assistant Professor in the Department of Economics, London School of Economics; Research Affiliate, CEPR

John Van Reenen. Director of the Centre for Economic Performance, Professor of Economics at the London School of Economics and CEPR Research Fellow