I-BRIDGE's blog (Link Campus University's Research Centre on Global Affairs) - editor, Marco Emanuele - Critical thinking, complexity, international relations (Twitter, @Glob_Eye - Facebook, https://www.facebook.com/marco.emanuele.50)
Friday 30 September 2016
What the Spanish civil war can reveal about Syria (Ibrahim al-Marashi, Al Jazeera)
The Spanish civil war spanned three years - why has the Syrian conflict endured so much longer?
Bulgaria parliament bans full-face veils in public (Al Jazeera)
Under the law, the garment will be banned in public institutions, schools, areas of administrative and public services.
Europe's Rosetta probe lands on comet after 12 years (Al Jazeera)
Rosetta crash lands on the comet in a final bid to gather pictures, marking an end to the historic mission.
Syria's war: 'Russian air raids kill 9,400 in one year' (Al Jazeerra)
At least 9,364 people, including 3,800 civilians, have been killed in 12 months of Russian raids, Syria monitor says.
Bank boards and professional misconduct: New metrics needed (Louis Nguyen, Jens Hagendorff, Arman Eshraghi, VOX)
Banks are regularly under scrutiny for their professional and ethical behaviour. This column assesses the role of boards in monitoring and advising conduct, and offers new insights for how to structure bank boards to prevent misconduct. Conventional board measures such as board independence and financial expertise have no measurable impact on misconduct being committed or detected. Instead, governance metrics revolving around CEO connections warrant more attention from regulators, investors, and governance activists.
Democracy does not cause growth (Julia Ruiz Pozuelo, Amy Slipowitz, Guillermo Vuletin, VOX)
The debate over whether democracy causes economic prosperity and growth dates back millennia. Recent empirical results suggest that democratisation has a sizable positive effect on economic growth, but endogeneity and reverse causality may be driving these results. This column uses new data from surveys of democracy experts to solve the endogeneity puzzle. The positive association between democracy and economic growth is a reflection of economic turmoil causing the emergence of democratic rule, rather than democracy causing more economic growth.
Evaluating Trump’s trade policies (Gary Hufbauer, Euijin Jung, VOX)
Donald Trump has consistently made headlines with unusual and potentially dangerous economic policy proposals, including threatening to pull out of the WTO, renegotiating trade agreements, and imposing tariffs on imports from Mexico and China. This column explores the legal and economic dimensions of these proposals. Old and modern legal statutes could allow a US president to implement such policies, and the repercussions for the US economy could be severely negative.
WATCH: Experts discuss how China’s currency, the renminbi, is taking the global economy by storm (Shawn Dhar, Brennan Hoban, Brookings)
The renminbi (RMB), China’s official currency, is often a contentious issue as policymakers make accusations of currency manipulation and whether it will rival the dollar as the dominant global reserve currency. However, its impressive rise will culminate on October 1, as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) will officially anoint the RMB as a major global reserve currency, and with it, China’s growing economic clout. This is unusual for a currency the value of which is not determined by market forces and whose home country does not allow for the free flow of capital across its borders.
Productivity and Election 2016 (David Wessel, Brookings)
Only half of all Americans tell public opinion pollsters that they expect today’s young people to have a better life than their parents, a remarkably pessimistic view given the economic and technological progress that the U.S. has enjoyed over the past several generations.[1] Will those pessimists be proven correct? The answer depends on how fast we can increase productivity, the amount of goods and services produced for each hour of work.
Is Jordan’s Islamist phoenix rising again? (Beverley Milton-Edwards, Brookings)
Jordan’s parliamentary elections on September 20 heralded the return of the Muslim Brotherhood, having survived a major attempt by the Jordanian regime to dismantle and destroy it. After such weakening and a decade-long electoral boycott, the group’s political party—the Islamic Action Front (IAF)—did well to contest seats throughout the country, but this time only as part of a wider coalition. The coalition claimed an estimated 16 of 130 seats in parliament
Major tax issues in 2016 (William G. Gale, Aaron Krupkin, Brookings)
The federal tax system is beset with problems: It does not raise sufficient revenue to finance government spending; it is complex; it creates outcomes that are unfair; and it retards economic efficiency. In this essay, we discuss several ways to improve taxes including creating a value-added tax, increasing environmental taxes, reforming the corporate tax, treating low- and middle- income earners equitably and efficiently, and ensuring appropriate taxation of high-income households. Although the politics are a major barrier to reform, the next president’s legacy may well be determined by how well he or she handles tax policy.
America’s role in a turbulent world (Bruce Jones, Brookings)
We live in a moment of global uncertainty and American self-doubt. As confidence in the Western order and its American backing have waned, hope for a benign multi-polar order has shown to be hollow. We face a choice. We could stay home in splendid isolation, in the belief that our economy will thrive, and terror will avoid us, and great power tensions in Asia and Europe won’t disrupt the global economy or pull us in, or threaten our way of life. We could do so, but it would be the height of foolishness. We would be willing walls of sand around both the economy and our security. If you think hope isn’t a strategy, try denial.
The Renminbi rises, but is no match for the dollar (Eswar Prasad, Brookings)
October 1 marks a symbolically momentous day in the annals of international finance. On that day, the International Monetary Fundy (IMF) will officially anoint the Chinese renminbi (RMB) as an elite global reserve currency. The RMB will join the select basket of currencies (currently comprised of the dollar, the euro, the Japanese yen, and the British pound sterling) that constitute the IMF’s artificial currency unit, the Special Drawing Rights. It seems clear the RMB is taking the world by storm and reshaping global finance.
The view from tomorrow: Challenges to regulating commercial space travel (Mia Brown, Brookings)
Members of the international space community recently gathered in Guadalajara, Mexico for the 2016 International Astronautical Congress (IAC) to discuss current and emerging issues in the space sector. This year in particular, major launch providers took the opportunity to provide critical updates on their plans to develop the next wave of innovative launch vehicles.
Pension incentives and teacher retention (Cory Koedel, Brookings)
It is increasingly apparent that public defined-benefit (DB) pension plans, including teacher plans, across the United States are in a difficult financial situation. Chicago Public Schools is now routinely in the news for its precarious finances, owing in large part to pension problems. In a recent paper covered previously in this blog space, we document that on average across state plans, over 10 percent of salaries for new teachers are being collected and used to pay down previously accrued pension debts. Even more, there is growing awareness that pension plan reports are based on actuarial assumptions that make their financial conditions appear better than they actually are. The Citrus Pest Control District No. 2 in California learned this lesson the hard way when it tried to convert its workers from the state pension plan, CalPERS, to a 401(k) plan.
Who pays for peace in Colombia? (Vanda Felbab-Brown, Brookings)
With Colombia voting on Sunday in a referendum on the historic peace deal with the leftist guerrillas known as The Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia—People’s Army (Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia—Ejército del Pueblo, FARC), much of the conversation in Colombia has centered on who benefits from the peace. Even as the peace deal provides an unprecedented chance to end a significant element of Colombia’s civil violence that has been going on for decades, many in Colombia feel that the FARC benefits far more than the Colombian people and are ambivalent about the deal. If the referendum does not approve the deal, the costs to Colombia would be significant. The government has no plan B and an unprecedented chance, unlikely to reappear for a long time, will have been missed.
Securing the future of driverless cars (Darrell M. West, Brookings)
The list of new technologies grows every day. Robots, augmented reality, machine-to-machine communications, and autonomous vehicles help people with a range of different tasks. These developments are broad-based in scope and have the ability to transform existing businesses and personal interactions. But people need to pay attention to the social and economic ramifications of emerging technologies. New devices carry a number of benefits but also disrupt existing patterns in significant ways.
How the U.S. can better harness the private sector for development: Advice for the next President (George Ingram, Brookings)
Support for the idea that private capital and the business sector are key ingredients to reducing poverty, promoting global growth, and also good for U.S. companies, has been growing since the early 2000s. Yet, the U.S., with its unparalleled private sector capacity and ingenuity, is far behind in bringing those assets to the development arena. The tools to enhance this capability exist and can be deployed with only modest additional resources. The capabilities of the main U.S. instruments of development finance – the Overseas Private Investment Corporation (OPIC), the US Trade and Development Agency (USTDA), US Agency for International Development’s Development Credit Authority (DCA) – are ripe for expansion at a reasonable cost. In addition, the private sector has demonstrated its willingness and ability to engage in the development space, if only the U.S. government will make itself a better, more open partner through a one-stop-shop and a more strategic use of public-private partnerships (PPP)s.
Making U.S. development fit for the 21st century (George Ingram, Brookings)
U.S. international interests rest on a triad of three Ds—Defense, Diplomacy, and Development. They are co-equal in policy statements, not in practice. Defense dominates in the budget arena. Diplomacy dominates at the policy level. Development too often has been the afterthought and not preeminent even in its own space. If it is to fulfill its role in advancing U.S. international interests, the American approach to development needs an upgrade in structure and resources.
In support of U.S. alliances (Richard C. Bush, Brookings)
United States alliances with East Asian countries are not a fight-for-cash proposition, as Donald Trump continues to suggest. They are an important instrument of U.S. national security strategy, whereby we have chosen to defend the homeland by forward deployment of our armed forces in the Asia-Pacific. Moreover, our allies pay a significant cost of our presence (around 50 percent in the case of Japan and Korea) and bear the primary responsibility for defending themselves. To suggest that the United States would help their defense only if “the price is right” only fosters doubt in the minds of our friends in the credibility of our commitment.
Saudi Arabia and terrorism today (Daniel L. Byman, Brookings)
Congress’ override of President Obama’s veto to allow Americans to sue Saudi Arabia for links to the 9/11 plot raises many questions, not least of which is the relationship between Saudi Arabia and terrorist groups today. As I testified earlier this year, Saudi Arabia has made considerable progress on counterterrorism in the last 15 years but still has a long way to go.
Why don’t checks clear instantly? Ask the Fed. (Aaron Klein, Brookings)
Whenever you make a payment—with a credit card, a check, a wave of your iPhone—you’re piggybacking on a system built during a time of punch-card computing, a time when billions of paper checks were flown across the country to be physically sorted one by one. Today, living in a land of smartphones and click-to-same-day delivery, one would think the payment system would have evolved. It has not.
Unhappiness in America: Desperation in white towns, resilience and diversity in the cities (Carol Graham, Sergio Pinto, Brookings)
The 2016 election has highlighted deep social and political divisions in the United States, and related unhappiness. The starkest marker of desperation is the trend of increasing mortality rates – driven by preventable deaths – among middle aged, uneducated whites. That stands in sharp contrast to gradual improvements in health and well-being of blacks and Hispanics over the past decades, and high levels of optimism about the future among these same groups. The trends among poor whites – and the frustrations that they are generating – have complex causes that we do not fully understand. Yet they constitute a social crisis that the next president will have to face. There are no magic bullets. We highlight the importance of documenting the extent of the crisis and exploring its causes as a first step towards finding solutions in the safety net, health, and well-being arenas.
How Kaine and Pence both fit the mold of a “modern vice president” (Elaine Kamarck, Brookings)
Next week, all eyes will be on Tim Kaine and Mike Pence as they square off in the vice presidential debate, each hoping to make the case that his running mate should be president of the United States and that he himself is prepared to be next-in-line for the highest office. Until recently, however, the vice presidency and the relationship between presidents and vice presidents was not of very much interest—and for good reason.
Shimon Peres: A Great Statesman, a Tragic Politician (Shai Feldman, The National Interest)
He was one of the two most influential people in Israel’s short modern history.
America's Irrational Saudi Arabia Relations (Daniel R. DePetris, The National Interest)
Washington is sending mixed messages to one of its most important regional allies.
Why the 9/11 Bill Establishes a Dangerous Precedent (Jennifer Hunt, The National Interest)
It wouldn't protect Americans from terrorist attacks or deter others from mounting them.
Can Washington Confront Russia, China and Terror All at Once? (Rachel Zissimos, Justin T. Johnson, The National Interest)
Now is the time to invest in the future of America's military.
A life of hope lived in defiance of violence: Rebecca Masika Katsuva (Fiona Lloyd-Davies, openDemocracy)
“They think when they’re raped that their lives are shattered. But we’d like them to know that it’s not the end of the world" - Rebecca Masika Katsuva. (1966 - 2016)
“You wanted civil society? Well, now you’ve got it” (Mikhail Kaluzhsky, opeDemocracy)
Amid Russia’s conservative turn, a new brand of conservative civil society is mobilising against freedom of expression.
Climate justice meets racism: Standing Rock was decades in the making (Jenni Monet, openDemocracy)
The militarized response to activists opposing the Dakota Access pipeline—and the Standing Rock Sioux’s fierce resolve—reflect the area's deep racial divides.
Diplomacy alone cannot stop barbarism in Syria (Mohamed Chebarro, Al Arabiya)
The latest sequence of siege, death, and destruction in Aleppo is just another example of an international community that has gone irrelevant, incapable and indolent.
Implications of the growing Iran-Syria economic relations (Majid Rafizadeh, Al Arabiya)
A considerable amount of analysis has been dedicated to Iran’s geopolitical, strategic, and military relationships with the Syrian government apparatuses. Nevertheless, the shifting economic nexus between Tehran and Damascus has been subjected less to scholarly work, policy analysis, or media attention.
Shimon Peres: The passing of an era (Yossi Mekelberg, Al Arabiya)
Today Israel and many others in the world are saying goodbye to the last of its political giants, who was the link between the founders of the State of Israel and the present. It is hard to write about Shimon Peres in the past tense. If there has been someone ever-present in Israeli political life, since its inception, it was him. For nearly seven decades there were symbiotic relations between the man and his country.
The illogical trend of prejudice (Peter Harrison, Al Arabiya)
For me it is hard to see how anyone can explain in any rational way any form of bigotry. It seems to me that this is quite clear - it is illogical to have any disliking for an entire group of people, claiming that they all have some trait that causes a person to hate them all.
Fighting for the Soul of Islam: A Battle of the Paymasters (James M. Dorsey, RSIS)
A gathering of prominent Sunni Muslim leaders in the Chechen capital of Grozny that appeared to have effectively excommunicated Saudi-backed ultra-conservatism potentially opens not only a theological but also a geopolitical rift in the Muslim world. The conference, sponsored and attended by some of Saudi Arabia’s closest allies, suggests that Saudi funding of ultra-conservative worldviews may be meeting its match in more liberal interpretations of Islam backed by the United Arab Emirates and Russia.
Strategic restraint and surgical strikes: Modi’s ‘on again, off again’ approach to Pakistan (Observer Research Foundation)
The “surgical strikes” on terrorist bases along the LoC brought about a sigh of relief for the NDA government, which was under pressure to punish the perpetrators of Uri attack. However, questions remain as to why it took 11 days to examine Narendra Modi’s idea of strategic restraint.
China–Russia energy ties won’t short-out (Tao Wang, East Asia Forum)
China used to call Russia its ‘older brother’. But never again since the fall of the USSR. In an effort to portray its status as a less powerful yet assuredly more senior neighbour, Russian officials have recently begun referring to their country as China’s ‘elder sister’. The new term has proven less popular in China.
CVE-2016-6406 – CISCO reported a critical flaw in email security appliances (ESA) (Pierluigi Paganini, Security Affairs)
Cisco issued a security advisory about a vulnerability, tracked as CVE-2016-6406, affecting the Email Security Appliance Internal Testing Interface.
Mozilla plans to ban the Chinese CA WoSign due to trust violations (Pierluigi Paganini, Security Affairs)
Mozilla is at the point of banning Chinese certificate authority WoSign due to a number of severe violations that could impact Internet users.
5 ways to make global trade work for developing countries (Joakim Reiter, WEF)
In 2016, the growth of world trade will be at its slowest since the financial crisis of 2008, reports the World Trade Organization (WTO). Despite the increased protectionism that followed the crash, traditional trade barriers, such as tariffs, are at historical lows. Despite this, the flow of goods and services between countries remains one of the most important drivers of job creation and prosperity, and its sluggish pace is prompting anxiety.
Female farmers suffer most in Southern Africa drought (William G Moseley, Rachel Fehr, Al Jazeera)
Uneven access to water makes household farming questionable for delivering food security in the African context.
Drop the farcical obits, Shimon Peres was no peacemaker (Marwan Bishara, Al Jazeera)
The Palestinian leadership's biggest failure was trusting the likes of Shimon Peres.
In pictures: The last days of the FARC (Tomas Ayuso, Al Jazeera)
A photographic journey with the fighters of the FARC's 62nd front as they contemplate life after war.
Israel's strip searches at airports 'illegal' (Jonathan Cook, Al Jazeera)
Adalah confirms Israel's aviation law provides no authority to the 'racial profiling' against Palestinians at airports.
Ukraine's battle between the banks and the borrowers (Chris Scott, Al Jazeera)
How a foreign currency debt crisis is leaving Ukrainians at risk of losing their homes.
Hard times for Oman's Strait smugglers (Al Jazeera)
New taxes and the lifting of sanctions on Iran could contribute to smuggling's decline in the Strait of Hormuz.
US Elections: America's Amish voters (Al Jazeera)
Despite its remote setting, Amish country has become enveloped in the 2016 presidential election campaign.
Somalia asks US to explain strike that 'killed troops' (Al Jazeera)
Angry protesters in northern region burned US flags and images of President Barack Obama after raid.
Israelis, world leaders gather for Peres funeral (Al Jazeera)
Police shut roads in central Jerusalem as former Israeli president, who died at 93, is laid to rest.
Duterte cites Hitler, wants to kill millions of addicts (Al Jazeera)
Philippine president says he wants to slaughter millions of drug addicts, comparing it with Hitler's massacre of Jews.
Saudi Arabia condemns passage of US 9/11 law (Al Jazeera)
US law that would allow families of victims to sue Saudi government a matter of "great concern", foreign ministry says.
ASPI suggests (Amelia Long, David Lang, The Strategist)
Clinton and Trump went toe-to-toe this week for the first Presidential debate. 30 minutes in, it looked like Trump was pulling off ‘The Haranguing at Hofstra’, but Clinton soon stepped forward to slay an increasingly unhinged DJT with her studied wonkery, serene expression and even a shimmy. If you’re reading this you’ve likely imbibed a lot of debate analysis already, so we’ll just present our favourite piece (not to be ‘braggadocious’): Frank Bruni’s Sympathy for the Donald. (Break here for an effective post-Trump treatment, captured at the infamous Altamont ‘69 concert. We have no word on whether the Hells Angels will take on crowd control duties at the second debate…)
Replacing the Rhino (Malcolm Davis, The Strategist)
The 2016 Defence White Paper (DWP16) signals that ‘options to replace the Super Hornets in the late 2020s will be considered in the early 2020s in the light of developments in technology and the strategic environment and will be informed by our experience in operating the Joint Strike Fighters’. As Andrew Davies and I previously argued, rather than rushing such a decision, Australia should pause to consider exploiting the revolutionary potential offered by Unmanned Combat Air Systems (UCAS). In this regard, it’s worth looking at the USAF’s Air Superiority 2030 (AS-2030) Flight Plan, which is the latest American perspective on the future of air power.
US strategic policy and public opinion (Rod Lyon, The Strategist)
In the wake of the first presidential debate, we’ve settled into the political trivia season: did Trump have the sniffles? But there are much larger questions at stake. For example, are we about to see a prolonged period when ‘America First’ dominates US strategic policy, regardless of who wins on 8 November? I’m trying not to use the i-word here, because America First needn’t actually mean ‘isolationism’. But I’m concerned that the positions Trump’s retailing reflect a longer-term and more substantial shift in the US electorate’s thinking about America’s role in the world.
http://www.aspistrategist.org.au/us-strategic-policy-public-opinion/
http://www.aspistrategist.org.au/us-strategic-policy-public-opinion/
New York and New Jersey terrorist attacks, 17 September 2016 (Ashley Collingburn, Jacinta Carroll, ASPI)
On 17-18 September 2016 four terrorist-related bomb incidents occurred in northeastern United States. One incident in New York City resulted in 31 people being injured, but there were no casualties at the other sites, and the terrorists succeeded in detonating only two of the four bombs. An Afghan-born American citizen was arrested after being linked to all four attacks.
This CT Quick Look paper highlights the key issues and assesses the relevance for affected stakeholders and Australia. It provides recommendations for government.
This CT Quick Look paper highlights the key issues and assesses the relevance for affected stakeholders and Australia. It provides recommendations for government.
Terrorist attack in Minto, 10 September 2016 (Jacinta Carroll, ASPI)
On 10 September 2016, a 22-year-old Australian national, Ihsas Khan, attacked Wayne Greenhalgh on a street in Minto, southwest Sydney. Khan stabbed Greenhalgh multiple times with a knife, inflicting serious but not critical wounds. Khan was arrested and charged with terrorism offences. This was Australia's fourth terrorist attack in two years.
This CT Quick Look paper highlights the key issues and assesses the relevance for affected stakeholders including recommendations for government.
This CT Quick Look paper highlights the key issues and assesses the relevance for affected stakeholders including recommendations for government.
From the CIA to the GFE (Jeffrey D. Sachs, Project-Syndicate)
The United States needs to shift its spending from war to education, from CIA-backed regime change to a new Global Fund for Education (GFE). With hundreds of millions of children around the world not in school, or in schools with under-qualified teachers, a lack of computers, large class sizes, and no electricity, many parts of the world are headed for massive instability, joblessness, and poverty. The twenty-first century will belong to countries that properly educate their young people to participate productively in the global economy.
MH17 REPORT: WHAT DID THEY DO THE WHOLE YEAR? (Valdai Discussion Club)
On September 28, 2016, the MH17 Joint International Criminal Investigation Team under the chairmanship of the Netherlands prosecutor's office issued a report on the investigation of Boeing-777 aircraft crash in the Donetsk region on July 17, 2014. The main conclusion is that MH17 was downed by Buk SAM, which was delivered to Ukraine from Russia, and after the missile launch returned to Russia.
The ECB on the Slowdown in Global Trade (Brad Setser, CFR)
I really liked the ECB’s recent report on the slowdown in global trade (summarized here), for five reasons.
Global Order and the New Regionalism (Stewart M. Patrick, Miles Kahler, CFR)
Regional institutions and initiatives have proliferated in the twenty-first century. This latest wave of regional innovation raises, in new guise, a long-standing conundrum for global order and U.S. foreign policy: When is regional organization a useful, even essential, complement to the ends of global governance—financial stability, an open trading system, sustainable development, robust protection of human rights, or the end of civil wars—and when does it threaten or undermine the achievement of those goals? The new regionalism presents the prospect for new benefits for global order as well as new risks. How those challenges and risks are addressed, by the United States and by other member states, will determine whether a fragmented global order or more effective global and regional governance emerge over the next decade.
Podcast: India and China’s Brave New World (Elizabeth C. Economy, CFR)
On this week’s Asia Unbound podcast, Anja Manuel, cofounder and partner at RiceHadleyGates and author of This Brave New World: India, China and the United States, offers her prescription for how the United States can understand and engage with Asia’s two largest rising powers. Manuel compares and contrasts Indian and Chinese history, leaders, and trajectories, ultimately arriving at a pair of distinct national ambitions: China aims to regain its long-lost place on center stage, and India wishes to re-engage with the world after being relatively isolated since independence.She is sanguine about troubling headlines, such as China’s faltering economy and India’s violent outbursts of Hindu nationalism, which she believes will not hold the two countries back from achieving their greater goals, but acknowledges continuing challenges in both countries’ relations with the outside world, such as unfair business practices or Chinese cyber policies. For Manuel’s recommendations as to what role the United States should play, listen to our conversation below. By her assessment, we are on the right track by bolstering ties with India and—especially in the face of occasional adversity—continuing to seek areas of cooperation with China.
This is the New India (Alyssa Ayres, CFR)
Narendra Modi has laid down the gauntlet.
Sari-and-shawl exchanges, then birthday diplomacy, failed to produce breakthroughs with Pakistan. Cross-border terrorist attacks continued. This week, New Delhi signaled the end of its patience by expanding its diplomatic coercive strategies as well as military actions to deal with terrorism and Pakistan.
Sari-and-shawl exchanges, then birthday diplomacy, failed to produce breakthroughs with Pakistan. Cross-border terrorist attacks continued. This week, New Delhi signaled the end of its patience by expanding its diplomatic coercive strategies as well as military actions to deal with terrorism and Pakistan.
A Face of Nigerian Corruption (John Campbell, CFR)
The Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) has frozen U.S. dollar bank accounts that former Nigerian First Lady Patience Jonathan claims are hers. The total value of the accounts is worth $31.5 million. She has applied to the Federal High Court in Lagos to unfreeze the accounts. Many Nigerians, including the Nigeria Labour Congress, are asking how she accumulated $31.5 million in the first place.
The World Next Week: U.S. Government Spending, Hungary's Referendum, a U.S. Vice Presidential Debate, and More (CFR)
The new U.S. fiscal year begins, Hungary holds a referendum on migrant quotas, and U.S. vice presidential candidates debate.
Thursday 29 September 2016
Markets and School Quality (Andrés Velasco, Project-Syndicate)
Around the world, private schools are booming, especially in developing countries. The Economist reports that in 2010, there were an estimated one million private schools in the developing world, and the figure has since risen quickly. From Latin America to Africa and South Asia, private schools have been moving into communities – mostly poor – where the state has been slow to provide services.
Managing a Multipolar Europe (Mark Leonard, Project-Syndicate)
People used to think that the most important decisions affecting Europe were made in Paris, Berlin, or Brussels. But in recent months, as the European Union has confronted the refugee crisis, and the Syrian conflict that is fueling it, Moscow and Ankara have come to the fore. And the EU is divided on how to deal with its two disgruntled neighbors, Russia and Turkey, both of which feel increasingly snubbed by the West.
Landslides demolish village in southeast China (Al Jazeera)
At least 27 people are still missing as the remains of Typhoon Megi continue to cause destruction.
Bangladesh accused of 'kneecapping' opposition members (Al Jazeera)
Government official rejects Human Rights Watch report, saying allegations against security forces are baseless.
Russia hits back at US, supports 48-hour Syria truce (Al Jazeera)
Moscow calls US threat to end talks over Aleppo push "emotional breakdown", rejects Washington-backed seven-day truce.
The great Spanish hope: reflections on the 2016 Podemos party conference in Madrid (Ellie Mae O'Hagan, openDemocracy)
At first glance, Universidad de Podemos feels like any other rag tag left-wing meeting. But it’s when you dig deeper that the differences reveal themselves.
Decolonization—not western liberals—established human rights on the global agenda (Steven L.B. Jensen, openDemocracy)
Human rights scholarship and advocacy claim to be grounded in universality, yet both are anything but in their privileging the Western role in building an international human rights system.
Mosul, the next target (Paul Rogers, openDemocracy)
The complex military operation to seize Iraq's second city from ISIS's grip is a microcosm of the long war.
Carnegie Gives Grants to Promote Russian Studies (EurasiaNet)
The Carnegie Corporation is striving to catalyze a revival in the study of Russia, giving three grants worth $1 million each to three American universities. The gifts come at a time of rising US-Russian tension and a general decline in Russian and Eurasian studies in the United States.
Azerbaijan’s Referendum: Every Vote – and More – Counts (EurasiaNet)
In Azerbaijan, apparent national enthusiasm for prolonging the rule of the ex-Soviet republic’s longtime leader, Ilham Aliyev, has resulted in a vote-count total for a referendum on the proposed change that exceeds 100 percent.
International Criminal Probe Blames Missile from Russia for MH17 Tragedy (EurasiaNet)
The Netherlands -- An international criminal investigation into the MH17 tragedy in eastern Ukraine in 2014 has determined the Malaysian Airlines passenger jet was shot down by a Buk antiaircraft missile fired from separatist controlled territory in Ukraine.
Georgian Parties Fail to Link Domestic Prosperity With a Consistent Foreign Policy (Devi Dumbadze, The Jamestown Foundation)
Days after Russia completed its annual military exercise Kavkaz 2016, centered on the southern part of the country and the Black Sea area and reportedly involving 120,000 service personnel (seeEDM, September 15), Georgian Prime Minister Giorgi Kvirikashvili delivered a pre-election speech at the United Nations General Assembly (Civil Georgia, September 22). With Georgia’s October 8 parliamentary elections nearing, campaigns are in high gear. Kvirikashvili used his opportunity in the international spotlight to delineate an action plan that is nearly identical with his party Georgian Dream–Democratic Georgia’s (GDDG) domestic platform (Civil.ge, September 22). He only briefly addressed the main national security issue: Russia occupies 20 percent of Georgian territory, and human rights violations against Georgia’s citizens there are ongoing (Civil Georgia, September 17).
Is Georgia Headed Toward Post-Election Violence? (Vasili Rukhadze, The Jamestown Foundation)
Georgian Prime Minister Giorgi Kvirikashvili, who also serves as the chairman of the ruling Georgian Dream–Democratic Georgia party (GDDG), stated on September 14 that the formerly ruling United National Movement (UNM) was trying to radicalize the country’s political situation through its affiliate organizations. He asserted that UNM was setting up new groups and was planning to block the exits and entrances of polling stations to artificially create tensions. The prime minister’s statement followed Interior Minister Giorgi Mgebrishvili’s statement a day earlier, who said that, based on his information, “some political parties [intended] certain provocations during and after the elections” (Civil Georgia, September 14). Nationwide parliamentary elections are scheduled in Georgia for October 8.
Debating U.S. Military Aid to Israel (Zach Abels, The National Interest)
Dov S. Zakheim and Aaron David Miller take a hard look at U.S.-Israel pressure points.
What If President Bill Clinton Had Gone to North Korea? (Doug Bandow, The National Interest)
A transformation of the U.S.-North Korea relationship a couple of decades ago could have dramatically changed the international environment, encouraging the North to take a different path.
Egypt's Economy Is in Big Trouble (Ilan Berman, The National Interest)
Egypt’s government is eating itself in order to stay in business.
Has Hong Kong's Economy Peaked? (William T. Wilson, The National Interest)
The sun may be setting on Hong Kong's once indomitable economy.
The Case for Retaining the First-Use Doctrine for Nuclear Weapons (Dianne Pfundstein Chamberlain, The National Interest)
Although we may dislike the idea of launching a first strike, retaining the option to do so may be the best way to achieve strategic objectives.
Support Military Families, Don't Abandon Them (Amy Schafer, The National Interest)
Advancing veterans and their families is a platform both parties should support.
Why modest broadband development steps mark a significant leap ahead (Stuart N. Brotman, Brookings)
In recent years, much of our domestic attention on broadband development has focused on residential service, with the National Broadband Plan goal of having 100 million Americans with 100 megabits per second (Mbps) network capability by the year 2020. This aspiration is supported by our nation’s status as one of five countries that I have termed top-tier Net Vitality global leaders (along with France, Japan, South Korea and the United Kingdom). Their prominence in broadband network metrics, along with achievements in other critical aspects of the broadband ecosystem -applications/content and devices – make them examples worth emulating.
Pension puzzles part I (Dick Startz, Brookings)
Everyone knows that teachers get great pensions and that those great pensions make up for the less-than-stellar salaries teachers earn. Everyone knows that taxpayers are getting stuck with a huge bill for said pensions and that the money paying for those pensions is money not going into direct education support. Well, the first thing everyone knows isn’t true and the second thing everyone knows doesn’t come close to describing how bad the situation really is.
The wisdom of mandatory grade retention (Brian A. Jacob, Brookings)
Last week, Michigan’s legislature passed a bill requiring schools to hold back third-graders who fall a grade-level behind in reading. If Governor Rick Snyder signs the bill, Michigan will become the 17th state to adopt such a policy.
How to make womenomics work (Nobuko Nagase, East Asia Forum)
According to the latest medium-term Japanese population projections by the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research, the number of people aged over 75 is expected to increase by 5.3 million from 2015 to 2025, while the working-age population, aged 20 to 59, will shrink by 5.3 million. Government policies to increase the wage income of women and facilitate better work–life balance will be crucial to managing this demographic change.
Reforming Myanmar: The Big Task to Develop Human Capital (Arunajeet Kaur, RSIS)
Myanmar’s capacity in managing skilled labour and human capital development is at a fledgling state. The country struggles to overhaul the education system to facilitate Myanmar’s integration into the open market economy.
Shanghai Cooperation Organisation: Risky Search For New Balance? (Aidar Amrebayev, RSIS)
The recent SCO summit in Tashkent may not only be a turning point in the regional configuration of forces. It could potentially affect the strategic balance in the world order.
Counter Terrorist Trends and Analysis (CTTA) – Volume 8, Issue 09 (Syed Huzaifah Bin Othman Alkaff, Muhammad Haziq Bin Jani, Paul Lushenko, Anthony Williams, Matan Uberman, Shaul Shay, Hamoon Khelghat-Doost, RSIS)
Defeating the so-called Islamic State (IS) and its global affiliates and supporters remains an on-going counter-terrorism challenge. So far, kinetic approaches have dominated the modus operandi of anti-IS coalitions and governments, with some success in recapturing lost territories, eliminating top IS leaders and incarcerating IS militants and operatives. More however needs to be done. The ideology of the group continues to resonate among numerous supporters and extremist groups in and beyond the Middle East, inspiring terrorist attacks with implications to national security and social cohesion.
China’s One-Road-One Belt Initiative: A New Model of Global Governance (Mukul Sanwal, IDSA)
South Asia is the least integrated region in the world, and that is not in line with global trends. This is a major reason constraining India’s economic potential and its re-emergence as a global power. With China now a USD 10 trillion economy, compared to India’s economy of USD two trillion, India is at a defining movement on how the Asian Century will be shaped. The strategic question is whether Asia will have two poles, as it has had throughout history, or will India remain at Asia’s periphery as a regional power? Does connectivity, rather than institutions and rules, now enable integration and economic growth? The related question is whether economic development is the best way of reducing the role of the military in polity.
Cancellation of the SAARC Summit: Has India Succeeded in Isolating Pakistan Regionally? (Smruti S. Pattanaik, IDSA)
India’s announcement that it will not participate in the forthcoming 19th SAARC summit scheduled to be held in Islamabad did not come as a surprise. There was already a rethink afoot on India’s participation after the shabby treatment meted out to Home Minister Rajnath Singh during his visit to Islamabad to attend the SAARC Home Ministers’ meeting. Unlike during past conventions, the Pakistan media blacked out the speech that Singh delivered at the meeting. India contemplating the decision of not participating was reinforced when Vikas Swarup, the spokesperson of the Ministry of External Affairs, countered Indian High Commissioner Gautam Bambawale’s remarks in Karachi that “as of today Prime Minister Modi is looking forward to visiting Islamabad for the SAARC summit.”
Afghanistan: Ghani, Hekmatyar sign peace deal (Al Jazeera)
President Ghani inks deal with Gulbuddin Hekmatyar in first peace treaty since the war with the Taliban began in 2001.
Russia proposes 48-hour 'humanitarian pause' in Aleppo (Al Jazeera)
Moscow calls US threat to end talks over Aleppo push "emotional breakdown", rejects Washington-backed seven-day truce.
Why JASTA has major implications for the region (Theodore Karasik, Al Arabiya)
As America’s presidential campaign heats up on the heels of Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump’s first debate, US lawmakers opened up a Pandora’s Box surrounding the Justice against Sponsors of Terrorism Act (JASTA). The House and Senate buried their partisan politics and overrode US President Barack Obama’s veto of JASTA, which allows families killed in the 9/11 terrorist attacks to sue Saudi Arabia’s government for the kingdom’s alleged involvement. The implications for the MENA region and the GCC in particular are paramount.
The ally, the enemy, and America in between (Mshari Al Thaydi, Al Arabiya)
Regarding the comparison between the Saudi presence in all aspects of American life and that of Iran, two news stories should be considered. The first is the US Senate paving the way for a $1.15 billion deal to sell tanks and other military equipment to Saudi Arabia. The Senate voted 71 to 27 to oppose legislation aimed at obstructing the deal.
International agreements on Syria will prove worthless (Maria Dubovikova, Al Arabiya)
The Syrian conflict has taken another turn for the worse with major belligerent parties indicating a military solution in the only way to end the fighting. For its part, the Syrian opposition has lost faith in the political process and in the promises of international negotiators.
Necurs botnet: the resurrection of the monster and the rising of spam (Pierluigi Paganini, Security Affairs)
Necurs botnet, the monster is resurrected. Banking Trojans and Ransomware propagated via spam is bring backing the high-volume spam campaign
Why Apple logs your iMessage contacts and other metadata? (Pierluigi Paganini, Security Affairs)
Every time you type a number to start an iMessage conversation on your iPhone, Apple logs your message contacts and other metadata.
Africa could feed the world - if it overcomes these key challenges (Vivian Maduekeh, WEF)
Nigeria’s fledgling food export business was dealt a serious blow last year when the EU put a ban on beans imports - after over four times the acceptable amount of pesticide residue was detected. This comes after a previous ban on melon seeds for unacceptable levels of aflatoxin.
Spain: Is this the end of the Socialists? (Gina Benevento, Al Jazeera)
A 'sense of duty' may not be enough for Spain to overcome the crippling political impasse.
Israel's war on peaceful activism (Khaled Diab, Al Jazeera)
Despite increasing dangers Palestinian and Israeli activists continue their efforts to oppose the occupation peacefully.
Gone is Shimon Peres, but so is his era (John Bell, Al Jazeera)
During his long career, he was involved in the good, the bad and the ugly of Israel's politics.
Boko Haram refugees in Niger find safety, but lack aid (Al Jazeera)
Refugees in the southeastern region of Niger say they no longer fear Boko Haram, but their problems are far from over.
Israel police target Palestinian Balad party in arrests (Al Jazeera)
Mass arrest of party members over fraud allegations seek to 'de-legitimise Arab political activism'.
Setting history alight: Revolution and history in Egypt (Al Jazeera)
From Jeeps running over protesters to a museum being set alight, Yehia Ghanem recalls key moments in Egypt's revolution.
Letter from Aleppo: 'My city is not just a death toll' (Al Jazeera)
A Syrian Civil Defense member and resident of Aleppo reflects on the worst onslaught the city witnessed since 2011.
In Egypt's Guantanamo 'abuse is systematic' (Al Jazeera)
Prison authorities refused to provide inmates with medical care, possibly causing their deaths, HRW report finds.
Life in an ISIL firing zone on the Syria-Turkey border (Al Jazeera)
With dozens of rockets landing in Kilis this year, some residents say they have become afraid to go outside.
Sudan accused of chemical weapons attacks in Darfur (Al Jazeera)
Sudanese officials deny Amnesty report alleging suspected use of chemical weapons by Sudan's government forces.
US to Russia: Stop Aleppo assault or Syria talks end (Al Jazeera)
Kerry tells Lavrov US holds Russia responsible for use of incendiary and bunker buster bombs against Aleppo civilians.
India claims striking suspected rebels in Pakistan (Al Jazeera)
India says it conducted "surgical strikes" along de facto border, but Pakistan calls incident "cross-border fire".
India–Pakistan relations: the dangerous drift towards militarisation (Ramesh Thakur, The Strategist)
On 18 September terrorists came across the border from Pakistan, attacked a fortified army base in Indian Kashmir and killed 19 soldiers. While the dilemma India confronts in deciding how to respond hasn’t changed substantially since the Mumbai attacks in November 2009, the political cost of inaction with each new attack is higher for the Hindu nationalist party. After the 2009 attacks, I listed six changing India–Pakistan equations; five remain relevant.
Whither the Pacific Islands Forum post-Pohnpei? (Richard Herr, Anthony Bergin, The Strategist)
The absence of Fiji’s Prime Minister Frank Bainimarama from the recent Pacific Islands Forum’s Leaders’ Meeting in Pohnpei wasn’t a surprise: he hasn’t attended a Forum Leaders’ Meeting since 2007. But taking away the commission of his stand-in, Foreign Minister Ratu Inoke Kubuabola, while he was sitting in the absent PM’s chair at the Leaders’ Meeting was a surprise. So too was Fiji’s almost simultaneous announcement to withdraw support of the agreed legal text of the economic integration treaty PACER Plussponsored by the Forum.
Apple, Brussels, and Ireland’s Bruised Sovereignty (Yanis Varoufakis, Project-Syndicate)
Despite their unequivocal Europeanism, the Irish have been serially mistreated by the European Union.
EU-RUSSIA: SELECTIVE ENGAGEMENT AND STRATEGIC SECURITY DIALOGUE (Ivan Timofeev, Valdai Discussion Club)
Neither Brussels nor Moscow seem to have a clear understanding of what issues need to be included into the list of partnership destinations.
ZVI MAGEN: SHIMON PERES WAS THE LEADER OF THE PEACE PROCESS, BUT WE THOUGHT HE WAS AN UTOPIAN DREAMER (Valdai Discussion Club)
Shimon Peres, former Israeli President, former Prime Minister, and former member of Knesset died on Wednesday at the age of 93. "Peres was a highly respected and well-known politician. He represented a rare combination of a great politician and philosopher," Zvi Magen, Research Fellow at the Institute for National Security Studies, Tel Aviv University, and former Israeli ambassador to Russia, told www.valdaiclub.com
THE SCHENGEN’S FRAGILE PEACE: CAN THE EU REESTABLISH CONTROL? (Valdai Discussion Club)
On September 28, the Valdai Discussion Club hosted the presentation of a report titled “Schengen: Dead or Alive?” dedicated to migration issues in the European Union and possible challenges for Russia.
NUCLEAR WEAPONS IN THE CYBER AGE: NEW CHALLENGES FOR SECURITY, STRATEGY AND STABILITY (Valdai Discussion Club)
The safe, secure and reliable management of nuclear weapons has always been a complex and complicated business, plagued by uncertainty and risks.
But these challenges are being magnified and aggravated by new cyber tools, dynamics and capabilities, and from the threat posed by hackers seeking to gain access to, or interfere with, nuclear systems. This article covers such problems as the nature of the cyber challenge, new nuclear vulnerabilities, the role of cyber in deterring cyber-attacks as well as the cases of cyber-nuclear espionage.
But these challenges are being magnified and aggravated by new cyber tools, dynamics and capabilities, and from the threat posed by hackers seeking to gain access to, or interfere with, nuclear systems. This article covers such problems as the nature of the cyber challenge, new nuclear vulnerabilities, the role of cyber in deterring cyber-attacks as well as the cases of cyber-nuclear espionage.
Four Ways to Unilaterally Sanction North Korea (Scott A. Snyder, CFR)
It has been almost three weeks since North Korea conducted its fifth nuclear test, but China and the United States have not yet reached agreement on the text of a new UN Security Council resolution condemning the country.
Unrest at South African Universities (John Campbell, CFR)
Those universities commonly regarded as the best in South Africa have been roiled by student unrest over the past two years. First, it was protests against the symbols of imperialism and racism such as the statue of Cecil Rhodes at the University of Cape Town (UCT). Then in October 2015, protests over university fees and tuition hikes began. After reaching a settlement last year the university fees and tuition have been raised once again, inciting major student protests. The students are now calling to make university education free.
The U.S.-China Cyber Espionage Deal One Year Later (Adam Segal, CFR)
A year ago, presidents Barack Obama and Xi Jinping stood next to each other and declared that neither the U.S. nor Chinese governments “will conduct or knowingly support cyber-enabled theft of intellectual property, including trade secrets or other confidential business information for commercial advantage.” Despite a great deal of warranted skepticism about the agreement initially, much of the heat surrounding cybersecurity in the bilateral relationship has dissipated. It is Russia, and the alleged hacks of the Democratic National Committee and World Anti Doping Agency, that now dominates the headlines and drives much of U.S. cybersecurity policy discussion.
What the 9/11 Lawsuits Bill Will Do (Stephen I. Vladeck, CFR)
Congress entered into law a bill that will allow the families of victims of the September 11, 2001, attacks to sue Saudi Arabia in the first veto override that President Barack Obama has faced. The bill drew large bipartisan majorities in both the House and Senate, but many lawyers and national security professionals have criticized it. The bill, known as the Justice Against Sponsors of Terrorism Act, or JASTA, could set a precedent for a panoply of lawsuits unrelated to 9/11 against foreign countries in U.S. courts and against the United States in foreign courts, said legal scholar Stephen I. Vladeck in an interview conducted after the president’s veto. Moreover, he said the latest version of the bill would not fulfill its intended purpose: even if the 9/11 plaintiffs see their day in court, they will likely never be able to collect on a judgment in their favor, and all the while the law will be an irritant in already strained U.S.-Saudi relations.
Global Order and the New Regionalism (CFR)
Regional institutions and initiatives have proliferated in the twenty-first century. This latest wave of regional innovation raises, in new guise, a long-standing conundrum for global order and U.S. foreign policy: When is regional organization a useful, even essential, complement to the ends of global governance—financial stability, an open trading system, sustainable development, robust protection of human rights, or the end of civil wars—and when does it threaten or undermine the achievement of those goals? The new regionalism presents the prospect for new benefits for global order as well as new risks. How those challenges and risks are addressed, by the United States and by other member states, will determine whether a fragmented global order or more effective global and regional governance emerge over the next decade.
Why are swing states important? (Brennan Hoban, Brookings)
Thirty-three states have voted for the same party in the past five presidential elections, and 40 of the 50 states have voted for the same party since 2000. Predictability like this means that many states can essentially be written off, far in advance of Election Day, as a sure win by one or the other candidate. The remaining battleground states, or swing states, are the focus of presidential campaigns. Seventy-five percent or more of a presidential candidate’s spending occurs in these key states.
How can Africa entice more long-term investors in its much-needed infrastructure projects? (Christina Golubski, Brookings)
Africa’s infrastructure deficit is well known: It needs $93 billion per year to fill its gap and, due to limited domestic sources, the continent must rely heavily on foreign investments. However, many investors view contributing to African infrastructure projects as risky, meaning that long-term, risk-averse investors such as sovereign wealth funds—which have accumulated almost $6 trillion in assets—to shy away from these projects.
Redefining Global Cities (Jesus Leal Trujillo, Joseph Parilla, Brookings)
The world’s largest metropolitan areas concentrate the drivers of global prosperity, but there isn’t one way to be a global city—this report defines seven types of global cities, providing a valuable lens through which to understand an evolving global economy.
The making of global cities: Stories from the Global Cities Exchange (Rachel Barker, Amy Liu, Marek Gootman, Brookings)
Over the last two years, enterprising software engineers and coders representing a dozen startups hailing from as far as Ireland, Brazil, and Germany have arrived in Des Moines, Iowa, for a 100-day sprint to take their innovations to market. Organized by the region’s Global Insurance Accelerator, these entrepreneurs are equipped with $40,000 in seed capital and trained in sales, business development, marketing, and other business essentials. Insurance carriers, who each invested $100,000 in the accelerator, serve as mentors and experts, providing real-world insights while also getting a first look at emerging startups and innovations. Participants conclude the program by pitching their ideas to the hundreds of industry leaders from around the world that attend Des Moines’ annual Global Insurance Symposium.
Hong Kong political reform: Implications for U.S. policy (Richard C. Bush, Brookings)
Hong Kong is a special administrative region of the People’s Republic of China. Between 2013 and 2015, opinion there was deeply divided over how to reform the system for selection of the chief executive. China was prepared to allow election by all registered voters but it insisted on a nomination mechanism that would allow it to retain control over who actually ran. The democratic camp sought a system that denied Beijing such control. A compromise that probably would have allowed a genuinely competitive election was possible, but reform failed in the end because of mistrust between the pro-democracy and pro-Beijing, or establishment, camps. Rhetorically, the United States was clearly in favor of a democratic outcome, but for good reasons it remained reserved when it came to actions. Hong Kong provides a good case of the difficulties that the United States faces in promoting democracy in complex political circumstances.
Political gridlock and the U.S. economy (William A. Galston, Alice M. Rivlin, Adrianna Pita, Brookings)
Alice Rivlin, senior fellow in Economic Studies and the Center for Health Policy, and William Galston, senior fellow in Governance Studies, discuss the importance of bipartisanship in the United States and how current party divisions are detrimental to the economy.
Shimon Peres: Eternal optimist, 1923-2016 (Natan Sachs, Brookings)
Shimon Peres, Israel’s ninth president, former prime minister and Nobel peace prize laureate, died last night at the age of 93. A mere highlight list of his public positions speaks volumes about his role in Israeli history: president (2007-2014), prime minister (twice, 1984-1986, and, following the assassination of Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin, 1995-1996), minister of defense (1974-1977 and 1995-1996), foreign minister (1986-1988, 1992-1995, and 2001-2002), finance minister (1988-1990), and leader of the opposition (1977-1984, 1990-1992).
Is LNG the new fuel for the global economy? (Tomoo Kikuchi, Yohei Tanaka, East Asia Forum)
During this year’s G7 summit, Japan announced its vision of creating a LNG market to meet increasing energy demand. Natural resource markets are a foundation for trade and economic development. What is less well known is the close link between the natural resource markets and the currency markets.
Wednesday 28 September 2016
Trump Through Russian Eyes (Nina L. Khrushcheva, Project-Syndicate)
I am an American, Moscow-born. And because of that, my Americanness, unlike that of Saul Bellow’s Augie March, once triggered something of a national debate back in Russia. In some places, school textbooks asked students whether it was right or wrong for Nina Khrushcheva to become an American citizen. I leave it to you to guess which position most people, especially those of the Soviet generation, supported.
The Perils of Debt Complacency (Carmen Reinhart, Project-Syndicate)
“What a government spends the public pays for. There is no such thing as an uncovered deficit.” So said John Maynard Keynes in A Tract on Monetary Reform.
Confronting the Populists (Chris Patten, Project-Syndicate)
Here’s a confession: I don’t lie in bed at night missing mainstream politics. Instead, I am spending a week at my house in southwest France, walking around the countryside. The early autumn sun is warm on my back, the trees are starting to change color, and local farmers are preparing for this year’s grape harvest. What’s not to like?
How Scary is Disruptive Technology? (Martin Feldstein, Project-Syndicate)
The steady stream of improvements in driverless cars has convinced me that before too long the roads will be filled with cars and trucks operating without humans at the wheel. Likewise, I am convinced that the revolution in artificial intelligence will allow computers and robots to do many of the tasks that white-collar workers now do.
Israel’s Last Founding Father (Itamar Rabinovich, Project-Syndicate)
In 2006, a year before Shimon Peres was elected as Israel’s president, Michael Bar-Zohar published the Hebrew edition of his Peres biography. It was aptly titled Like a Phoenix: by then, Peres had been active in Israeli politics and public life for more than 60 years.
We’re less productive than in the past. Here are five potential explanations (Margareta Drzeniek-Hanouz, WEF)
In the decades after Robert Solow identified technology as a driver of growth, productivity grew hand in hand with innovation. But that’s no longer the case.
Europe's competitiveness is under threat - unless it tackles these obstacles to prosperity (Gaëlle Marti, Silja Baller, WEF)
Europe is pushing the competitiveness frontier in many ways, as illustrated by thelatest edition of the Global Competitiveness Report, the World Economic Forum’s annual assessment of the drivers of productivity and prosperity in 138 countries. Indeed, the Europe region - which includes the EU28, Iceland, Norway, Switzerland, the Balkans, and Turkey - performs well above the global average in terms of competitiveness. This result is driven by the performance of several regional champions, most notably Switzerland, which leads the global rankings for the eighth consecutive year, as well as seven more European countries in the top 12: the Netherlands (4th), Germany (5th), Sweden (6th), the United Kingdom (7th), Finland (10th), Norway (11th), and Denmark (12th).
What makes South Asia the fastest growing region in the world? (Attilio Di Battista, WEF)
The Global Competitiveness Report 2016-2017 shows that most countries in South Asia have improved their competitiveness over the course of the last year. This part of the world is experiencing positive economic momentum, and in 2016 is set to grow more quickly than China for the first time in more than 20 years, making it the fastest growing region in the world. Over the past decade, the sub-continent has focused on improving overall health and primary education levels and upgrading infrastructure, areas of particular importance for future diversification and preparedness given the resource-driven nature of the regional economies.
What will travel look like in 2030? (Tiffany Misrahi, WEF)
The travel and tourism industry has grown dramatically in the past decades, reaching nearly 1.2 billion international arrivals in 2015, compared to 25 million in 1950. That’s a growth of 4,700% – and this number is only expected to get bigger, reaching 1.8 billion international arrivals by 2030. You might be surprised, but it’s one of the fastest growing economic sectors in the world.
Lessons in corporate health - from ancient China (Andrew Chakhoyan, WEF)
In ancient China, it’s been said, people paid their doctors retainer fees for staying healthy. If a person got sick, the payments would be suspended until the doctor brought a patient back to health. To a Western healthcare consumer, this approach may seem unorthodox. Yet, each paradigm has its own merit; and, perhaps, the lessons from healthcare can be translated into the lessons of business strategy.
Wildlife crime: a $23 billion trade that’s destroying our planet (Wolfgang Lehmacher, WEF)
Between 2007 and 2013, rhino poaching in South Africa increased by 7,700%. Rhinos, which are poached for their horn, aren’t the only victims of this illicit trade, which is driving many species of wild animals and plants to extinction: elephants are poached for ivory, tigers and leopards for their skin, pangolins for meat and scales, and iguanas are caught for the pet trade. Rare timber is targeted for hardwood furniture.
Can Africa diffuse its demographic time-bomb? (Roberto Crotti, WEF)
In the past couple of years, growth in Africa has been affected by low commodity prices and economic slowdowns among trading partners. After seeing GDP increases of over 5% in 2014, regional growth is estimated to have been a more modest 3.4% in 2015, and it looks like it will be around 3% in 2016. Although that still makes the continent the world’s third-fastest growing region, this deceleration in economic activity is bad news for Africa’s millions of young unemployed.
How can Latin America escape it's middle-income trap? (Daniel Gomez Gaviria, WEF)
This year’s Global Competitiveness Report has good, bad and ugly news for Latin America and the Caribbean. The top performing country in the region remains Chile (33th), rising two places in the rankings, followed by Panama (42th), which moves up eight places. Costa Rica falls slightly to 54th, while Mexico (51st) moves up six. In fact, 4 of the top 10 highest movers this year come from the Latin America and Caribbean region: Jamaica, Panama, Dominican Republic, and Mexico. Among the economies falling in the ranking are El Salvador, Ecuador, Brazil, Trinidad and Tobago, and Bolivia.
Here’s how India became more competitive than China (Attilio Di Battista, WEF)
India’s GDP per capita (in terms of purchasing power parity) almost doubled between 2007 and 2016, from $3,587 to $6,599. Growth slowed after the 2008 crisis, hitting a decade low in 2012-2013. But if anything, this provided the country with the opportunity to rethink its policies and engage more firmly in the reforms necessary to improve its competitiveness. Growth rebounded in 2014, and last year surpassed that of China.
Shimon Peres: an optimist with a commitment to peace (Mark Schulman, WEF)
Shimon Peres – Nobel Peace Prize laureate and public servant extraordinaire – held just about every possible government position in Israel. Since his first appointment as Director-General of the Ministry of Defense in 1959 at the age of 29, Peres held a number of key posts, including Minister of Defense, Finance and Foreign Affairs, and Prime Minister (twice) and ending with the presidency at the age of 91. He also served in the Knesset, Israel’s parliament, for almost 50 years.
The Global Competitiveness Report 2016–2017 (WEF)
The Global Competitiveness Report 2016-2017 assesses the competitiveness landscape of 138 economies, providing insight into the drivers of their productivity and prosperity.
This year’s edition highlights that declining openness is threatening growth and prosperity. It also highlights that monetary stimulus measures such as quantitative easing are not enough to sustain growth and must be accompanied by competitiveness reforms. Final key finding points to the fact that updated business practices and investment in innovation are now as important as infrastructure, skills and efficient markets.
Switzerland, Singapore and the United States remain the three world’s most competitive economies.
“Declining openness in the global economy is harming competitiveness and making it harder for leaders to drive sustainable, inclusive growth,” said Klaus Schwab, Founder and Executive Chairman, World Economic Forum.
The Report series remains the most comprehensive assessment of national competitiveness worldwide
This year’s edition highlights that declining openness is threatening growth and prosperity. It also highlights that monetary stimulus measures such as quantitative easing are not enough to sustain growth and must be accompanied by competitiveness reforms. Final key finding points to the fact that updated business practices and investment in innovation are now as important as infrastructure, skills and efficient markets.
Switzerland, Singapore and the United States remain the three world’s most competitive economies.
“Declining openness in the global economy is harming competitiveness and making it harder for leaders to drive sustainable, inclusive growth,” said Klaus Schwab, Founder and Executive Chairman, World Economic Forum.
The Report series remains the most comprehensive assessment of national competitiveness worldwide
The Uri fiasco and ensuring accountability (Observer Research Foundation)
While it is not known as to what conclusions the Army’s Court of Inquiry has arrived at over the Uri fiasco, it needs little intuition or professional knowledge to conclude that there were serious lapses in following Standard Operating Procedures. There can be little doubt that this has deeply embarrassed the Army, especially the battalions involved, and must be attributed to what the military terms “command failure”. If there was a shining light in this dark episode it is the fact that the PARA (SF) Quick Reaction Force that was employed neutralised the militants within 15 minutes of engaging them as per media reports.
Terror from across: Well-considered action needed (Observer Research Foundation)
It is time to look at the Uri setback through a rational and reasoned perspective, shorn of hyperbole. In that sense, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s statement that the perpetrators will not go unpunished, is significant as people await what form it takes. The Pakistani establishment must be ruing that terrorist action was so successful, especially in terms of casualties caused, which was certainly unexpected and unpardonable, whatever be the reason.
Sushma exposes Pak argument that terrorists are non-state actors (Observer Research Foundation)
Speeches at the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA), especially by subcontinental political leaders, have generally been made for a television audience back home. Many of the issues and themes raised have little meaning for those in the room or for a truly global audience, but are meant to make a point to the individual politician’s voters and constituents in his or her home country.
Kashmir flare-up puts India under new pressure to deal with Pakistan (Observer Research Foundation)
In the worst attack against the Indian army in years, militants in Kashmir recently killed 18 soldiers in a predawn raid on an army camp in the town of Uri. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his government are under growing domestic pressure to launch a military response against suspected terrorist training camps inside Pakistan, with Modi himself declaring that “those behind this despicable attack will not go unpunished”.
Significance of the Jordanian Parliamentary Election (Manjari Singh, IDSA)
Who won the just concluded parliamentary election in Jordan? The answer depends on how one frames ‘victory'? The outcome of the 18th parliamentary election held on September 20 reflects the complexity of the Jordanian society and its multiple identities, namely, the tribal groups which form the backbone of the Hashemite power, a sizeable Palestinian population, presence of powerful Islamist forces, various religious and ethnic minorities, and a larger refugee population. It is this diversity which makes electoral process a complex but dynamic affair.
Coast Guards in the Western Hemisphere – The Dutch Connection (Sanjay Badri-Maharaj, IDSA)
On August 18th 2016, the HMBS Nassau (P-61), a 17 year old 60 metre long Offshore Patrol Vessel (OPV) arrived at Damen Maaskant Shipyards Stellendam in the Netherlands to start a 9 month refit. That a vessel of that age needs a refit is unsurprising. What is surprising, however, is the fact that P-61 was built in the United States and its refit is taking place in the Netherlands, a step that would, at first glance, seem to be somewhat odd.
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