The Ceasefire in Syria: Behind the Scenes and Current Implications (Zvi Magen, Udi Dekel, Vera Michlin, INSS)

On February 27, 2016, a ceasefire went into effect in Syria between the forces of the Assad regime and the opposition. The understandings underpinning the ceasefire rely on the agreement between Russia and the United States, which are determined to promote a broader settlement in Syria. To maintain the ceasefire, they will need to restrain the other actors involved in the crisis. It is important for the United States to focus on fighting the Islamic State, and the key question is whether or not it will be able to join forces with Russia in this effort, with the Islamic State being one of the actors in the Syrian arena with an interest in violating the ceasefire. Israel has chosen to remain uninvolved in the events in Syria and therefore has had no influence on the ceasefire. At the same time, Israel has notably maintained proper relations with Russia and tactical coordination with the Russians vis-à-vis Syrian airspace, though not at the expense of its strategic relations with the United States.

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