The Ceasefire in Syria: Behind the Scenes and Current Implications (Zvi Magen, Udi Dekel, Vera Michlin, INSS)

On February 27, 2016, a ceasefire went into effect in Syria between the forces of the Assad regime and the opposition. The understandings underpinning the ceasefire rely on the agreement between Russia and the United States, which are determined to promote a broader settlement in Syria. To maintain the ceasefire, they will need to restrain the other actors involved in the crisis. It is important for the United States to focus on fighting the Islamic State, and the key question is whether or not it will be able to join forces with Russia in this effort, with the Islamic State being one of the actors in the Syrian arena with an interest in violating the ceasefire. Israel has chosen to remain uninvolved in the events in Syria and therefore has had no influence on the ceasefire. At the same time, Israel has notably maintained proper relations with Russia and tactical coordination with the Russians vis-à-vis Syrian airspace, though not at the expense of its strategic relations with the United States.

http://www.inss.org.il/index.aspx?id=4538&articleid=11577

The Cyber Attack on the Ukrainian Electrical Infrastructure: Another Warning (Gabi Siboni, Zvi Magen, INSS)

On December 23, 2015, malfunctions were reported in portions of the electrical network in western Ukraine, after the operations of 27 distribution stations and three power plants were disrupted, causing the electricity supply system to crash. This was not a routine power outage: the Ukrainian authorities believe that a cyber attack originating in Russia caused the malfunction, and the Security Service of Ukraine has blamed Russia for the power outages. The conclusions of several security companies confirm the suspicion linking the attack to Sandworm, which according to the security company iSight is a Russian group affiliated with the Russian government. Hypotheses regarding a possible motive also support the suspicion that Russia is the party responsible for the attack, perhaps as part of the Russian campaign against cutting off the Crimean Peninsula, annexed by Russia, from electricity supplied by Ukraine. Cyberspace operations also enable Russia to continue denying its involvement in Ukraine, while at the same time persisting in efforts to attack it.

http://www.inss.org.il/index.aspx?id=4538&articleid=11446