Bi-Annual Report on Suicide Attacks (INSS)

This is a bi-annual report on suicide attacks around the world, prepared by the Terrorism and Low Intensity Conflict Program at INSS, headed by Yoram Schweitzer. In the first half of 2016, 198 suicide attacks took place in 21 states around the world, versus 245 attacks in the parallel period of 2015. The attacks were committed by 337 suicide terrorists (vs. 379 the previous year), who caused he death of 2,777 people (vs. 1938 the previous year). The number of attacks represents a decline of 20 percent since 2015.

http://www.inss.org.il/index.aspx?id=4538&articleid=12018

Arms Control and Strategic Stability in the Middle East and Europe (Emily B. Landau, Anat Kurz, INSS)

http://www.inss.org.il/index.aspx?id=4538&articleid=11878

An Egyptian Take on the “New Middle East” (Ofir Winter, INSS)

http://www.inss.org.il/index.aspx?id=4538&articleid=11897

Syria’s Civil War: Kurdish Success, Turkish Dilemma (Orit Perlov, Gallia Lindenstrauss, INSS)

http://www.inss.org.il/index.aspx?id=4538&articleid=11909

An Opportunity to Revive the Political Process, or an Illusion? (Shlomo Brom, Anat Kurz, INSS)

In recent years, much has been said about the need for Israel to identify opportunities that can be leveraged toward improvement of its strategic position in the midst of the regional turmoil. It seems that the renewed international and especially the regional interest in reviving the political process is just such an opportunity that, if exploited, can be a way for Israel to promote its relations with the pragmatic Arab states and serve as a channel to make progress toward resolving the conflict with the Palestinians. However, this opportunity will in all probability be squandered because of the political situation in Israel and Abbas’s weakness, factors that can be expected to discourage both the steps Israel will have to take in exchange for realizing the potential inherent in this opportunity and any willingness to put them into practice. Therefore, it seems that Egypt and the Arab Gulf states will continue to cooperate with Israel against their shared enemies in a limited fashion and only behind the scenes, but in all probability, under current circumstances, the positive potential inherent in these relations will not be realized

http://www.inss.org.il/index.aspx?id=4538&articleid=11846

Professional Knowledge in the Security Cabinet: The Need to Enhance It, and the Way to Do So (Amos Yadlin, INSS)

The demand by Education Minister Naftali Bennett to broaden the professional knowledge of the members of the security cabinet so that they can fulfill their duties in optimal fashion is, in principle, correct. Members of the cabinet (as well as the other ministers in the government, which has the authority over the IDF) need a system for learning and keeping abreast of developments in order to make informed strategic assessments and diplomatic and military decisions. The political compromise proposed by Minister Yaakov Litzman and accepted by the Prime Minister and Education Minister is a step in the right direction: the solution to the problem lies in the National Security Council. The NSC is already defined as the institution responsible for preparing, in coordination with the government secretariat, deliberations, net assessments, and operational alternatives, including intelligence analyses. Therefore, there should be an orderly implementation of the existing instructions in the law; there is no need to invent new positions or processes. The Prime Minister can – indeed, must – instruct the NSC to create the mechanism to ensure that cabinet members are exposed to the necessary intelligence, routine strategic assessments, and key national security issues

http://www.inss.org.il/index.aspx?id=4538&articleid=11851

A Century since the Sykes-Picot Agreement: Current Challenges (Itamar Rabinovich, Robbie Sabel, Oded Eran, INSS)

Exactly one hundred years ago, two diplomats, one British and one French, concluded the Sykes-Picot agreement, which divided the Middle East into two zones of influence. The agreement became one of the cornerstones of the region, and gave the core area of the Middle East the shape it has assumed since the end of World War I. However, the political order founded a century ago by what were then British and French superpowers, including the regimes created and the borders delineated, is currently under serious challenge. The article looks at the agreement through the lenses of the past and the present, and considers its prospects for surviving the political storms that currently engulf the region. It concludes with one recommendation: Israel should be prepared to articulate its ideas for a solution of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. When a new "Sykes-Picot" order is created, it will almost certainly relate to that issue as well

http://www.inss.org.il/index.aspx?id=4538&articleid=11812

Israel's Need to Take a Stand against the Assad Regime: A Moral Imperative and Strategic Necessity (Amos Yadlin, INSS)

The Middle East is being reshaped by an extended process that began over five years ago, and its end-point is currently impossible to predict. Still, it can be assumed that the parties involved with the conflicts in the region in general, and in Syria in particular, seek resolutions through an attempt to reshape the power relations between them and the state structures in the area. Against this background, Israel has a fundamental interest in ensuring that Iran and Hezbollah will not be the forces that are strengthened within the framework of a new order in the Middle East. Gone are the days in which Israel could impartially observe the developments in Syria from the sidelines. If Israel wants to help shape the nature of the surrounding region in the years to come and improve its standing in the region, it must not hesitate, as doing so could mean missing this opportunity to undermine its most bitter enemies. An assertive, moral, proactive, and creative policy against the radical axis, revolving around the ousting of the pro-Iranian Assad regime, is the path Israel must follow. This insight was already applicable three years ago, after the Assad regime made use of chemical weapons, and its validity increased substantially when such weapons were used again

http://www.inss.org.il/index.aspx?id=4538&articleid=11829

A Century since the Sykes-Picot Agreement: Current Challenges (Itamar Rabinovich, Robbie Sabel, Oded Eran, INSS)

Exactly one hundred years ago, two diplomats, one British and one French, concluded the Sykes-Picot agreement, which divided the Middle East into two zones of influence. The agreement became one of the cornerstones of the region, and gave the core area of the Middle East the shape it has assumed since the end of World War I. However, the political order founded a century ago by what were then British and French superpowers, including the regimes created and the borders delineated, is currently under serious challenge. The article looks at the agreement through the lenses of the past and the present, and considers its prospects for surviving the political storms that currently engulf the region. It concludes with one recommendation: Israel should be prepared to articulate its ideas for a solution of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. When a new "Sykes-Picot" order is created, it will almost certainly relate to that issue as well

http://www.inss.org.il/index.aspx?id=4538&articleid=11812

The Ceasefire in Syria: Behind the Scenes and Current Implications (Zvi Magen, Udi Dekel, Vera Michlin, INSS)

On February 27, 2016, a ceasefire went into effect in Syria between the forces of the Assad regime and the opposition. The understandings underpinning the ceasefire rely on the agreement between Russia and the United States, which are determined to promote a broader settlement in Syria. To maintain the ceasefire, they will need to restrain the other actors involved in the crisis. It is important for the United States to focus on fighting the Islamic State, and the key question is whether or not it will be able to join forces with Russia in this effort, with the Islamic State being one of the actors in the Syrian arena with an interest in violating the ceasefire. Israel has chosen to remain uninvolved in the events in Syria and therefore has had no influence on the ceasefire. At the same time, Israel has notably maintained proper relations with Russia and tactical coordination with the Russians vis-à-vis Syrian airspace, though not at the expense of its strategic relations with the United States.

http://www.inss.org.il/index.aspx?id=4538&articleid=11577

The Cyber Attack on the Ukrainian Electrical Infrastructure: Another Warning (Gabi Siboni, Zvi Magen, INSS)

On December 23, 2015, malfunctions were reported in portions of the electrical network in western Ukraine, after the operations of 27 distribution stations and three power plants were disrupted, causing the electricity supply system to crash. This was not a routine power outage: the Ukrainian authorities believe that a cyber attack originating in Russia caused the malfunction, and the Security Service of Ukraine has blamed Russia for the power outages. The conclusions of several security companies confirm the suspicion linking the attack to Sandworm, which according to the security company iSight is a Russian group affiliated with the Russian government. Hypotheses regarding a possible motive also support the suspicion that Russia is the party responsible for the attack, perhaps as part of the Russian campaign against cutting off the Crimean Peninsula, annexed by Russia, from electricity supplied by Ukraine. Cyberspace operations also enable Russia to continue denying its involvement in Ukraine, while at the same time persisting in efforts to attack it.

http://www.inss.org.il/index.aspx?id=4538&articleid=11446

Pakistan and Saudi Arabia: How Special are the “Special Relations”? (Yoel Guzansky, INSS)

Over the course of January 2016, a series of meetings took place between the Saudi and Pakistani political and security leaderships. In these meetings, the Pakistanis stressed their commitment to preserve the security and sovereignty of Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia regards Pakistan, which shares a 909-kilometer border with Iran, as an important asset in restraining Iranian influence. Pakistan has the world’s largest Muslim army and is the only Muslim nuclear power, which Riyadh regards as a force multiplier and support in times of crisis. It appears that Saudi Arabia believes that in the event of an Iranian breakout to nuclear weapons, Pakistan will come to its aid in one way or another. However, Pakistan will also have to consider its other interests, and thus Pakistan’s unconditional defense of Saudi interests, as Riyadh understands them, cannot be taken for granted.

http://www.inss.org.il/index.aspx?id=4538&articleid=11441

The Routinization of Nuclear Ambiguity (Adam Raz, INSS)

http://www.inss.org.il/uploadImages/systemFiles/adkan18_4ENG3%20(3)_Raz.pdf

Moderation and Radicalization in Lebanon (INSS)

http://www.inss.org.il/index.aspx?id=4538&articleid=11089

No Fundamental Change Expected in the Fight against the Islamic State – For Now (INSS)

http://www.inss.org.il/index.aspx?id=4538&articleid=11115

Arab Citizens of Israel Early in the Twenty-First Century (INSS)

http://www.inss.org.il/index.aspx?id=4538&articleid=8352

The Residency Status of East Jerusalem’s Palestinians (INSS)

http://www.inss.org.il/index.aspx?id=4538&articleid=10860

Sports and Politics: Palestinians, Arab States, and Normalization with Israel (INSS)

http://www.inss.org.il/index.aspx?id=4538&articleid=10863

One Year of the Islamic State in the Sinai Peninsula (INSS)

http://www.inss.org.il/index.aspx?id=4538&articleid=10852

The Escalation in the Palestinian Arena: Ramifications and Responses

http://www.inss.org.il/index.aspx?id=4538&articleid=10730