This Week in Markets and Democracy: New French Anticorruption Law, More Panama Papers Fallout, India’s Big Currency Ban (Shannon K. O'Neil, Council on Foreign Relations)

http://blogs.cfr.org/development-channel/2016/11/11/this-week-in-markets-and-democracy-new-french-anticorruption-law-more-panama-papers-fallout-indias-big-currency-ban/

Latin America’s Populist Hangover (Shannon K. O'Neil, Council on Foreign Relations)

In my piece published in the November/December 2016 issue of Foreign Affairs, I lay out the economic and political characteristics of populism, analyze why it is receding in Latin America today, and describe what a next wave might look like. I also argue that Latin America’s historical experience with populism provides some bracing warnings to other countries now flirting with such politics. You can read the first three paragraphs of the article below:

http://blogs.cfr.org/oneil/2016/10/18/latin-americas-populist-hangover/

Mexico’s Corrupt Governors (Shannon K. O'Neil, CFR)

Last June, Mexico elected new governors in twelve of its thirty-one states. As millions of voters went to the urns, corruption was a top concern (along with insecurity). Eight states saw the incumbent party kicked out; in four—Veracruz, Quintana Roo, Chihuahua, and Durango—the PRI lost for the first time in the party’s history.

http://blogs.cfr.org/development-channel/2016/10/12/mexicos-corrupt-governors/

The Future of Global Supply Chains: Workshop Report (Shannon K. O'Neil, CFR)

Commerce has fundamentally changed over the past thirty years. Intermediate goods—or parts of products traded through global supply chains—now account for 70 percent of all trade. The Civil Society, Markets, and Democracy program hosted a workshop in May to explore the evolution of global supply chains, the risks they face, and how U.S. policies help or hinder the country’s competitiveness. The workshop included current and former government officials, supply chain experts, corporate representatives, and finance specialists.

http://blogs.cfr.org/development-channel/2016/07/21/the-future-of-global-supply-chains-workshop-report/

This Week in Markets and Democracy: Foreign Aid Bill Passes, New TIP Report Released, UK Bribery Act Turns Five (Shannon K. O'Neil , CFR)

http://blogs.cfr.org/development-channel/2016/07/08/this-week-in-markets-and-democracy-foreign-aid-bill-passes-new-tip-report-released-uk-bribery-act-turns-five/

How Americans See Mexico (Shannon K. O'Neil, CFR)

http://blogs.cfr.org/oneil/2016/06/28/how-americans-see-mexico/

This Week in Markets and Democracy: U.S. Hunts Stolen Uzbek Assets, Bribery Still Pays, Uganda’s Democracy Backtracks (Shannon K. O'Neil, CFR)

http://blogs.cfr.org/development-channel/2016/06/17/this-week-in-markets-and-democracy-u-s-hunts-stolen-uzbek-assets-bribery-still-pays-ugandas-democracy-backtracks/

Mexico’s Gubernatorial Elections (Shannon K. O'Neil, CFR)

http://blogs.cfr.org/oneil/2016/06/06/mexicos-gubernatorial-elections/

Migration From Central America Back Up (Shannon K. O'Neil, CFR)

http://blogs.cfr.org/oneil/2016/05/17/migration-from-central-america-back-up/

This Week in Markets and Democracy: Peru’s Elections, Corruption Arrests, and Panama Papers Response (Shannon K. O'Neil, CFR)

http://blogs.cfr.org/development-channel/2016/04/15/this-week-in-markets-and-democracy-perus-elections-corruption-arrests-and-panama-papers-response/

Five Questions on Sustainable Investing With Morgan Stanley’s Audrey Choi (Audrey Choi, Shannon K. O'Neil, CFR)

http://blogs.cfr.org/development-channel/2016/04/12/five-questions-on-sustainable-investing-with-morgan-stanleys-audrey-choi/

This Week in Markets and Democracy: Brazil’s Crisis Snowballs, Deferred Corruption Prosecutions, U.S. Bets on Cuba (Shannon K. O'Neil, CFR)

http://blogs.cfr.org/development-channel/2016/03/18/this-week-in-markets-and-democracy-brazils-crisis-snowballs-deferred-corruption-prosecutions-u-s-bets-on-cuba/

This Week in Markets and Democracy: Nike’s Bribes in Kenya, Elections in Benin and Niger, and Women’s Anticorruption Role (Shannon K. O'Neil, CFR)

http://blogs.cfr.org/development-channel/2016/03/11/this-week-in-markets-and-democracy-nikes-bribes-in-kenya-elections-in-benin-and-niger-and-womens-anticorruption-role/

Foreign Affairs’ Brazil Economic Summit (Shannon K. O'Neil, CFR)

I had the pleasure yesterday morning of sharing the stage with Brian Winter, vice president of policy at Americas Society/Council of the Americas and editor-in-chief of Americas Quarterly, to talk about Brazil for Foreign Affairs’ Brazil Economic Summit. We discussed the ongoing corruption probes, President Dilma Rousseff’s chances of survival, and the possibility and paths for recovery. You can watch our discussion here.

http://blogs.cfr.org/oneil/2016/03/10/foreign-affairs-brazil-economic-summit/

Anticorruption Efforts in Mexico (Shannon K. O'Neil, CFR)

Corruption dominates Mexico’s headlines: helicopter rides for officials’ family members, housing deals from favored government contractors, the still unexplained disappearance of 43 students, and a drug lord escaping a maximum-security prison, for the second time. In a recent survey, Mexicans listed corruption as the country’s top problem, ahead of security and the economy.

http://blogs.cfr.org/oneil/2016/03/08/anti-corruption-efforts-in-mexico/

Latin America’s Ninis (Shannon K. O'Neil, CFR)

18 million Latin Americans—1 in 5 of those between the ages of 15 and 24—neither work nor attend school. Commonly dubbed “ninis” (ni estudian ni trabajan), a new World Bank reportlooks at this phenomenon across the region.

Latin America’s share falls near the world average—far better than the Middle East and North Africa, where one in three roam the streets, but nearly double the rate of industrialized nations. It also varies by nation. In Peru there are fewer ninis than in the United States, while in Central America over a quarter of adolescents are disconnected.

The majority are young poor urban women who drop out of school or the workforce after a teen pregnancy or early marriage. The men come from similar backgrounds, leaving school for a precarious job market.



In general, conditions are getting better—the share of ninis fell from 23 to 19 percent of young people between 1992 and 2010. These percentage improvements come almost solely from young women, who now stay in school longer, and, when they do leave, find jobs. For men, those that abandon school struggle to find work, filling the ranks of the 2 million more ninis than in the past.

Latin America’s disengaged youth threaten the region’s economic advancement. Studiesshow that lifetime earning power dissipates with just a few years out of the workforce, as individuals stop accumulating human capital and skills. Once excluded, many will only find work in the informal sector—where they will earn less, be less productive, and receive fewer benefits. This reinforces the region’s inequality—with most ninis coming from the lower socioeconomic ranks, they and their families will likely stay there. Excluding millions of young people also wastes Latin America’s current demographic bonus. If these countries are to grow rich before they grow old, they can’t have 18 million working age people on the sidelines.

And the disconnectedness links to rising violence, particularly in Mexico, Colombia, and Central America where levels of violence and ninis spiked together. A report by the Wilson Center shows the single most predictive factor of Central American violence is schooling—the more education local youths have the less violent their neighborhood. Broader criminologystudies echo this finding—that as education rises crime falls.

For policymakers taking on the ninis problem, one challenge is keeping young people in school. They need to convince kids and their families that school matters, and help support this choice—in the form of conditional cash transfers, scholarships, and other policies—so that children don’t have to choose between the classroom and sustenance. Another challenge is ensuring that when kids graduate they find work. Through job training, entrepreneurship programs, and employment services, governments can help link jobseekers with companies and opportunities. The regional economic downturn, leaving so many more vulnerable, makes a response all the more important.

Opportunities for U.S. Engagement in Latin America (Shannon K. O'Neil , CFR)

http://blogs.cfr.org/oneil/2016/01/26/opportunities-for-u-s-engagement-in-latin-america/

This Week in Markets and Democracy: Corruption in Iran, Africa, and Mexico (Shannon K. O'Neil, CFR)

http://blogs.cfr.org/development-channel/2016/01/22/this-week-in-markets-and-democracy-corruption-in-iran-after-sanctions-transparency-international-report-and-spain-takes-on-mexicos-corruption/

Opportunities for U.S. Engagement in Latin America. Hearing on Political and Economic Developments in Latin America and Opportunities for U.S. Engagement (Shannon K. O'Neil, CFR)

http://www.cfr.org/latin-america-and-the-caribbean/opportunities-us-engagement-latin-america/p37462

(Istituto fondamentale - Argentina) Argentina’s Presidential Primaries (Shannon K. O'Neil , Council on Foreign Relations)

http://blogs.cfr.org/oneil/2015/08/10/argentinas-presidential-primaries/