ANZUS in the age of Trump (Hugh White, The Strategist)

https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/anzus-age-trump/

A second strike on nuclear ‘no first use’ (Hugh White, East Asia Forum)

http://www.eastasiaforum.org/2016/09/06/a-second-strike-on-nuclear-no-first-use/

‘No first use’ nuclear pledge bad for US standing in Asia (Hugh White, East Asia Forum)

http://www.eastasiaforum.org/2016/08/24/no-first-use-nuclear-pledge-bad-for-us-standing-in-asia/

Invading Iraq: Tony Blair’s real motivation (Hugh White, ASPI The Strategist)

I haven’t read the dozen-odd volumes of the full Chilcot Report, but I can recommend the 150-odd page Executive Summary. It’s a valuable document and a welcome affirmation, in troubled times, of the principles of accountability on which representative government must be built. But it has serious flaws.

http://www.aspistrategist.org.au/invading-iraq-tony-blairs-real-motivation/

South China Sea: after the Hague ruling, what’s next? (Hugh White, East Asia Forum)

http://www.eastasiaforum.org/2016/07/07/south-china-sea-after-the-hague-ruling-whats-next/

Losing the war in an afternoon: Jutland 1916 (Hugh White, ASPI The Strategist)

2016 is a big year for centenaries, because 1916 was the pivotal year in the First World War. One hundred years ago in February German forces attacked the French at Verdun, while 1 July will mark the hundredth anniversary of the Anglo-French offensive on the Somme

http://www.aspistrategist.org.au/losing-the-war-in-an-afternoon-jutland-1916/

Need to face the facts in Asia (Hugh White, East Asia Forum)

The Obama administration has never plainly acknowledged that it faces a major challenge from China to the US-led order in Asia, and it has therefore never clearly explained its strategy to deal with that challenge. Because it has never been clearly explained, the strategy has never been carefully scrutinised to see whether it has a credible chance of working. Instead it has slowly become accepted as orthodoxy among the US foreign and strategic policy community without serious debate.

http://www.eastasiaforum.org/2016/04/18/need-to-face-the-facts-in-asia/

Can Asia break free of great-power dynamics? (Hugh White, ANU, East Asia Forum)

Asia’s recent decades of economic growth have depended, among other things, on a remarkable period of regional peace and stability. The region will only keep growing if that can be sustained. We cannot take this for granted. The peace we have known has resulted from an unusual situation that emerged in the early 1970s, when China decided to follow Japan in accepting the United States as the primary strategic power in Asia. That has meant that US primacy has been uncontested by any major regional power in Asia, eliminating major-power rivalry as a source of tension and conflict.

http://www.eastasiaforum.org/2016/03/27/can-asia-break-free-of-great-power-dynamics/

Australia’s Defence White Paper has a hidebound view of Asia’s future (Hugh White, ANU, East Asia Forum)

Any defence policy is ultimately based on a view of the international system and how it is expected to evolve over coming decades. These are the judgments that most fundamentally influence the nature and scale of armed conflict that a country’s forces must be prepared to fight. Australia’s new Defence White Paper makes two central judgments about this. First, that the post-Cold War, US-led international order will be maintained; and second, that it must be maintained.

http://www.eastasiaforum.org/2016/03/08/australias-defence-white-paper-has-a-hidebound-view-of-asias-future/

DWP 2016 and self-reliance (Hugh White, ASPI The Strategist)

There’s little that’s new in our new White Paper, but there’s one bold innovation which has so far received less attention that it deserves. The Turnbull Government has substantially downgraded, if not quite completely abandoned, the core idea which has been the foundation of Australia’s defence policy for 40 years: the self-reliant defence of Australia. Are we witnessing the end of an era?

http://www.aspistrategist.org.au/dwp-2016-and-self-reliance/