India needs to harness the market instead of fighting it (Mark Fabian, ANU, East Asia Forum)

http://www.eastasiaforum.org/2016/06/21/india-needs-to-harness-the-market-instead-of-fighting-it/

China’s global economic impact is no longer state-owned (Paul Hubbard, ANU, East Asia Forum)

State-owned enterprises (SOEs) are often thought to dominate the Chinese market, with profound implications for the global economy. The US–China Economic and Security Review Commission stated that ‘Soviet-style, top-down planning remains a hallmark of China’s economic and political system’.

http://www.eastasiaforum.org/2016/05/04/50473/

Rule of law deficit behind voter dismay in Philippines (Imelda Deinla, ANU, East Asia Forum)

One thing that the current presidential campaign in the Philippines has highlighted is how liberal democracy Philippines-style continues to fail to deliver rule of law. The rule of law is, and has always been, at the centre of the discourse on the Philippine elections.

http://www.eastasiaforum.org/2016/05/04/rule-of-law-deficit-behind-voter-dismay-in-philippines/

Asia’s next growth frontier (Peter Drysdale, ANU, East Asia Forum)

The steady state in the Asian region is growth and dynamism that requires continuous structural change and adjustment. The trajectory of China’s potential rate of growth is certainly 2 or 3 percentage points lower than it was a decade ago, but even at around 6 per cent over the coming decade the massive Chinese economy can still grow at two to three times the rate of the world economy as a whole. India is on the way back towards its growth potential, upwards of 8 per cent over the next decade in which the young will be pouring into its labour markets.

http://www.eastasiaforum.org/2016/05/01/asias-next-growth-frontier/

Generalising the middle income trap (Mark Fabian, ANU, East Asia Forum)

The middle income trap has recently come (back) into vogue as a theoretical construct for understanding why some countries seem to stagnate at the middle-income level. The middle-income range is relatively common among contemporary emerging markets globally, so it is not surprising that ‘trap’ discussions focus on this income bracket. But middle income trap theory also holds some very valuable lessons for development policy more generally, at all income levels.

http://www.eastasiaforum.org/2016/04/28/generalising-the-middle-income-trap/

Sunny days ahead for blossoming China–Nepal ties (Bishal Chalise, ANU, East Asia Forum)

One concerning aspect of China’s rising prominence is its troublesome relations with its neighbours. It has fought both real and legal battles on territorial and ideological grounds on several fronts including in India, Vietnam and on the Korean peninsula in the past, and currently is causing controversy with its maritime expansion. But one break in this pattern is the country’s long-standing relationship with Nepal.

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Bishal Chalise is a Masters student at the Crawford School of Public Policy at the ANU.

How the NLD is reshaping Myanmar’s government (Trevor Wilson, ANU, East Asia Forum)

The character and composition of Myanmar’s new National League for Democracy (NLD) government is gradually taking shape after the party’s sweeping victory in the November 2015 elections. A peaceful and orderly transfer of power from the former military-dominated government of reformist president Thein Sein culminated in the swearing in of the new government on 30 March.

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Malaysia’s government silencing dissent (Ross Tapsell, ANU, East Asia Forum)

The current scandal embroiling Prime Minister Najib Razak has led the Malaysian government to crack down on press freedoms. But a restricted mainstream Malaysian media has not stopped the publishing online of information on the ongoing corruption scandal surrounding the Prime Minister and 1Malaysia Development Berhad (1MDB). It remains to be seen whether Najib’s crackdown will secure his position or whether the media will help unseat him.

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Escaping the middle income trap (Shiro Armstrong, Tom Westland, ANU, East Asia Forum)

After a turbulent 2015, China’s major stock exchanges took another hit in January. Chinese authorities have in the past clumsily tried to stop the free fall in markets with various degrees of success. But for China to avoid a middle income trap and become a high-income country, it will need to develop and trust the markets instead of distorting them with unsustainable growth, just like its Northeast Asian neighbours did.

http://www.eastasiaforum.org/2016/03/28/escaping-the-middle-income-trap/

Can Asia break free of great-power dynamics? (Hugh White, ANU, East Asia Forum)

Asia’s recent decades of economic growth have depended, among other things, on a remarkable period of regional peace and stability. The region will only keep growing if that can be sustained. We cannot take this for granted. The peace we have known has resulted from an unusual situation that emerged in the early 1970s, when China decided to follow Japan in accepting the United States as the primary strategic power in Asia. That has meant that US primacy has been uncontested by any major regional power in Asia, eliminating major-power rivalry as a source of tension and conflict.

http://www.eastasiaforum.org/2016/03/27/can-asia-break-free-of-great-power-dynamics/

Latest draft constitution unlikely to restore Thai democracy (Sarah Bishop, ANU, East Asia Forum)

On 29 January, the latest draft of what may become Thailand’s 20th constitution was released. The draft was not the first since security forces seized power in May 2014 — an earlier draft, by a different body, was rejected in September 2015 amidspeculation that the junta had orchestrated the rejection in order to avert tensionsand gain more time in power.

http://www.eastasiaforum.org/2016/03/11/latest-draft-thai-constitution-unlikely-to-restore-democracy/

AIIB to unlock South Asia’s economic potential (Bishal Chalise, ANU, East Asia Forum)

South Asia’s economic potential has long been constrained by low levels of economic integration. Despite being closely linked geographically, culturally and historically, intra-regional trade is very low. A major problem has, of course, been political difficulties within and between South Asian countries. But an important, and overlooked, barrier to greater economic integration is the poor quality and inadequate investment in infrastructure in the region. The newly established Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) can play a pivotal role in fixing this problem.

http://www.eastasiaforum.org/2016/03/09/aiib-to-unlock-south-asias-economic-potential/

The NLD’s rocky road to reform (Helen James, ANU, East Asia Forum)

The National League for Democracy (NLD) won Myanmar’s national election on 8 November 2015 with an overwhelming majority, but formidable challenges lie ahead. When the NLD officially take over the reins of government on 31 March 2016 they will learn that winning an election, forming a viable government and holding onto power for the next five years of the electoral term are very different entities.

http://www.eastasiaforum.org/2016/03/09/the-nlds-rocky-road-to-reform/

Australia’s Defence White Paper has a hidebound view of Asia’s future (Hugh White, ANU, East Asia Forum)

Any defence policy is ultimately based on a view of the international system and how it is expected to evolve over coming decades. These are the judgments that most fundamentally influence the nature and scale of armed conflict that a country’s forces must be prepared to fight. Australia’s new Defence White Paper makes two central judgments about this. First, that the post-Cold War, US-led international order will be maintained; and second, that it must be maintained.

http://www.eastasiaforum.org/2016/03/08/australias-defence-white-paper-has-a-hidebound-view-of-asias-future/

Japan still coming to terms with 3.11 (Tessa Morris-Suzuki, ANU, East Asia Forum)

It is the stillness that is most overwhelming. The rubble has been cleared away. The grass has grown back. But along much of the coastal strip devastated by the tsunami that struck Japan on 11 March 2011, a silence remains.

http://www.eastasiaforum.org/2016/03/02/japan-still-coming-to-terms-with-3-11/

What is ASEAN’s strategic value? (Paul Dibb, ANU)

Since ASEAN’s creation in 1967, it has contributed enormously to regional stability and prosperity. It consists of 10 countries whose populations total over 600 million people. And its economy ranks collectively as the third largest economy in Asia and the seventh largest in the world.

http://www.eastasiaforum.org/2016/03/01/what-is-aseans-strategic-value/