Everything you need to know about a presidential transition in three easy charts (Elaine Kamarck, Brookings)

https://www.brookings.edu/blog/fixgov/2016/12/12/transition-in-three-easy-charts/

Dear President-elect, here are a few things you need to know about Washington (Elaine Kamarck, Brookings)

https://www.brookings.edu/blog/fixgov/2016/11/11/dear-president-elect-trump/

After Election 2016 (David Wessel, Stuart Butler, John Hudak, Elaine Kamarck, Bruce Riedel, Fred Dews, Brookings)

https://www.brookings.edu/podcast-episode/after-election-2016/

The third presidential debate: The strongman obscures the issues (Elaine Kamarck, Brookings)

https://www.brookings.edu/blog/fixgov/2016/10/19/the-third-presidential-debate/

Has a presidential election ever been as negative as this one? (Elaine Kamarck, Brookings)

Many Americans think the bloodbath between Trump and Clinton is unprecedented in American history, but the reality is that short term memories and a sugarcoating of our nation’s presidential history mask some contentious races for the White House.

https://www.brookings.edu/blog/fixgov/2016/10/18/the-most-negative-campaign/

How Kaine and Pence both fit the mold of a “modern vice president” (Elaine Kamarck, Brookings)

Next week, all eyes will be on Tim Kaine and Mike Pence as they square off in the vice presidential debate, each hoping to make the case that his running mate should be president of the United States and that he himself is prepared to be next-in-line for the highest office. Until recently, however, the vice presidency and the relationship between presidents and vice presidents was not of very much interest—and for good reason.

https://www.brookings.edu/blog/fixgov/2016/09/29/how-kaine-and-pence-both-fit-the-mold-of-a-modern-vice-president/

In first debate, Clinton goes after the heart of Trump’s candidacy (Elaine Kamarck, Brookings)

https://www.brookings.edu/blog/fixgov/2016/09/27/in-first-debate-clinton-goes-after-the-heart-of-trumps-candidacy/

Seven rules for presidential debates drawn from history (Elaine Kamarck, Brookings)

https://www.brookings.edu/blog/fixgov/2016/09/22/seven-rules-for-the-presidential-debates/

The electoral college is the answer to many of this election’s “What if?” questions (Elaine Kamarck, Brookings)

https://www.brookings.edu/blog/fixgov/2016/09/19/what-ifs-and-the-electoral-college/

What Happens if Donald Trump or Mike Pence drops out before election day? (Elaine Kamarck, Brookings)

https://www.brookings.edu/2016/08/03/what-happens-if-donald-trump-or-mike-pence-drops-out-before-election-day/

Melania Trump fails to help close the gender gap (Elaine Kamarck, Brookings)

On Monday night Melania Trump addressed the Republican National Convention. She was poised and elegant, and in contrast to the red meat speeches that preceded hers the speech she gave was lovely and calming.

http://www.brookings.edu/blogs/fixgov/posts/2016/07/18-national-convention-republican-melania-speech-kamarck

Are Trump and Sanders helping outsider congressional candidates? (Elaine Kamarck, Alexander Podkul, Grace Wallack, Nicholas W. Zeppos, Brookings)

Although both the Republican and the Democratic nominating conventions are coming up soon, both parties effectively decided on their nominee long ago. Trump secured the GOP nomination in May, when both Senator Ted Cruz and Ohio Governor John Kasich dropped out, and Clinton secured the necessary number of delegates for the Democratic nomination in June, despite the persistence of her challenger, Senator Bernie Sanders. But the presidential nominees will not be alone on the ballot in November—and the primary season for those congressional seats is just over halfway finished. Much has been said so far about the impact of Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump on congressional candidates, either in the primary or in the general, but little has been tested empirically. In the second cycle of the Brookings Primary Project, we have taken exit polls from congressional primaries to see what effect—if any—the presidential candidates are having down ballot. The answer so far: Not much.

http://www.brookings.edu/blogs/fixgov/posts/2016/07/07-trump-sanders-outsider-congressional-candidate-kamarck-podkul-wallack-zeppos

Coat-tails and down-ballot worries for the 2016 election (Elaine Kamarck, Brookings)

It’s almost convention time and both political parties are having trouble getting it together. On the GOP side, high ranking Republicans—including former nominees of the party—are being slow and cautious in their embrace of Donald Trump. And on the Democratic side, Bernie Sanders, while running behind Hillary Clinton in delegates, is arguing that he is a stronger general election candidate against Trump. In the meantime, irate voters in both parties are wondering if, how, and why their votes could be overturned by these strange people called convention delegates

http://www.brookings.edu/blogs/fixgov/posts/2016/05/19-down-ballot-president-election-effects-candidates-kamarck

The 1960 West Virginia primary: Can it happen again? (Elaine Kamarck, Brookings)

In 2016, both Democratic presidential candidates go into the West Virginia primary hoping that that it will do for them what it did for then-Senator John F. Kennedy 56 years ago. Since then, the 1960 West Virginia primary has assumed mythic proportions in the annals of American politics. But in 2016 it is a reminder of a nomination system that has all but ceased to exist.

http://www.brookings.edu/blogs/fixgov/posts/2016/05/10-west-virginia-primary-history-kamarck

Elections 101: Explaining myths about superdelegates (Elaine Kamarck, Brookings)

With the fervor in 2016 presidential election reaching new heights, the FixGov team decided to put together a video series on election basics. In this video I talk about some of the myths around the existence of superdelegates to the Democratic convention. For most of American history political parties nominated presidents in conventions composed almost exclusively of super delegates—primaries were either non-existent or “beauty contests” only—meaning that they didn’t matter in awarding delegates to presidential candidates. I also de-bunk some of the other myths about superdelegates such as the fact that the superdelegates have never, since 1984 when they were first in use, reversed the decision of the majority of voters in the primaries and caucuses.

http://www.brookings.edu/blogs/fixgov/posts/2016/04/27-elections-101-myths-about-superdelegates-kamarck

The New York Primary: Why Trump’s win is worth more than Hillary’s win (Elaine Kamarck, Brookings)

We have come to the point in the race for the Democratic and Republican nominations where winning a state is less important than winning delegates. This was the case last night in New York. Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump won convincing victories in their home states, but what really matters is how many delegates they won. We won’t know that for sure for a while. Votes are reported by counties; delegates are awarded by congressional districts, and once the votes are in they have to be mapped onto congressional districts. Nonetheless we can say this for sure—Donald Trump’s big win will be worth more than Hillary Clinton’s big win.

http://www.brookings.edu/blogs/fixgov/posts/2016/04/20-presidential-primaries-new-york-votes-reaction-kamarck

Donald Trump? Meet Barry Goldwater (Elaine Kamarck, Brookings)

Donald Trump can’t actually meet Barry Goldwater, who has been dead now for 18 years. But he should take a minute to learn a little bit about Barry Goldwater’s (R-AZ) 1964 campaign for the Republican nomination.

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Who will have the power at a brokered GOP convention? (Elaine Kamarck, Brookings)

What should the Republican Party do about Trump? That is the question on the minds of many as we go into the final round of primaries and caucuses—a round in which Trump could get the most votes, the most delegates, and perhaps even lock up the nomination. But in the past few weeks the anti-Trump forces have been getting their act together—somewhat belatedly—and the political class is salivating over the fact that there could be a brokered convention for the first time in more than half a century. How would that happen? And who are the brokers?

http://www.brookings.edu/blogs/fixgov/posts/2016/03/21-gop-governors-have-the-power-at-a-brokered-convention-kamarck

In Iowa, it’s all about who votes (Elaine Kamarck, Brookings)

Some Republican voters in Iowa have received an interesting piece of mail in the past few days. It comes in a large, official looking envelope. The paper inside is bright yellow and in a bright red box on the top of the page it reads “Voting Violation.” Under this header is the following ominous message:

“You are receiving this election notice because of low expected voter turnout in your area. Your individual voting history as well as your neighbors’ are public record. Their scores are published below and many of them will see your score as well. CAUCUS ON MONDAY TO IMPROVE YOUR SCORE and please encourage your neighbors to caucus as well.”

And then you see your name and your neighbors names and your failing voting score. This mailing was distributed by the Ted Cruz for President campaign. Photos are available hereand here.

Some voters have been outraged by this heavy-handed tactic designed to get people to the polls and while it’s probably legal, sending out what looks to be your neighbors’ voting records will undoubtedly rub some the wrong way. But let’s leave that to the Iowans to sort out. The broader message is that, 24 hours from caucus time there is only one thing on anyone’s mind—who will show up.

There are several ways to look at this.

1. If more people than usual show up to the polls it will benefit Trump on the Republican side and Sanders on the Democratic side.

For all the attention it gets, Iowa turnout is very low, mainly because voters can’t just vote and leave—they need to hang around, discuss the state of the world and elect delegates to the county conventions. In 2012, 122,255 voters turned out in the Republican caucuses, only around 2,000 more than had turned out in 2008. That’s about what we’d expect in the Democratic caucuses too. In 2004, 124,000 voters showed up in the Democratic caucuses. But in 2008, enthusiasm for Barack Obama brought lots of new voters to the caucuses, nearly doubling total Democratic turnout to 227,000. If turnout in either caucus breaks 150,000, expect Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders to have a good night. However, in 2008 voter registration increased dramatically in the weeks and months before the caucus. That hasn’t happened this year. And although, caucus goers can register to vote at the caucus site—some experts like Nate Cohn of Upshot at the New York Times think that this points to a lower than expected turnout.

2. If there’s a political revolution in either party it will be the result of voters coming out to caucus who don’t traditionally participate.

Latest polls show a very tight race between Donald Trump and Ted Cruz on the Republican side and between Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders on the Democratic side. Some piece of the Trump coalition consists of people who do not strongly identify with the Republican Party. Historically, weak partisan identifiers are also less likely to vote. In addition, part of Trump’s coalition consists of voters with less education. They too, are less likely to vote. On the Democratic side, Bernie Sanders seems to be surging among young people—a group that also, historically doesn’t vote very often, although they did turn out in large numbers to support Barack Obama. Both Ted Cruz and Hillary Clinton appear to have the strongest on the ground organizations capable of turning out the vote. This could be a major advantage in a close race.

3. Hillary could beat Sanders based on geography.

Every four years the Hamburg Inn in Iowa City, Iowa runs the coffee bean caucus. There’s a jar out for every candidate and every one who comes in can put a coffee bean in the jar of their favorite candidate. But Iowa City is a pretty liberal place and home to the University of Iowa, so the fact that Bernie Sanders’ supporters have cast so many beans that he’s on his second jar, while Hillary Clinton is only on her first jar, may not mean much. In fact, there is some suspicion here among Iowa experts that while Sanders might have intense support in some of the liberal strongholds in the state, Hillary’s wide geographic support across the state will allow her to win the most delegates to the county conventions. It is important to remember that the Democrats in Iowa don't report the raw vote totals, they report the number of delegates elected from 1681 precincts to county conventions.

4. Some new voters may be turned off from coming out on caucus night.

Caucuses are very different from primaries—mostly because they are much more public events. New research from Christian Grose at the University of Southern California asks voters how they feel about voting in a public meeting where everyone can see who they are and then about voting in a public meeting where they have to declare which presidential candidate they are for. On the basis of some limited evidence so far people who don’t want anyone to know who they vote for are less likely to show up and participate in caucuses. This and the constant drumbeat of news about how complicated it is to participate in a caucus may keep turnout low.

Angry voters dominate the presidential primaries (Elaine Kamarck, Brookings)

http://www.brookings.edu/blogs/fixgov/posts/2016/01/27-primaries-angry-voters-kamarck