The Changing Security Structure in the Middle East (Anthony H. Cordesman, CSIS)

On May 26, 2016, the Burke Chair circulated a speech to the International Symposium on International Relations and Security at the Turkish War College entitled The Changing Security Structure in the Middle East

https://www.csis.org/analysis/changing-security-structure-middle-east-0

Afghanistan: Deciding the Future of the Not Quite “Forgotten War” (Anthony H. Cordesman, CSIS)

The Obama Administration is in the process of making one of the most important decisions it will make in its final year, one that will shape its legacy for the future: whether and how the United States should support the Afghan government in its continuing war against the Taliban, ISIS, the Haqqani Network, and other violent Islamist extremists

https://www.csis.org/analysis/afghanistan-deciding-future-not-quite-%E2%80%9Cforgotten-war%E2%80%9D

Overseas Contingency Operations (OCO) and the Uncertain Cost of U.S. Wars (Anthony H. Cordesman, CSIS)

The United States has been involved in some form of warfare or conflict for most of the period since 1941, and has been continuously at war since September 11, 2001—nearly a decade and a half. The United States has never, however, come to grips with the reality of its involvement in such conflicts. Its official reporting on each conflict has been erratic at best, and has never really addressed the details of the cost of its wars, nor has it ever really addressed its strategies or how they were intended to be implemented. Furthermore, official U.S. reporting has not provided net assessments of the forces involved, nor has it provided a clear picture of the effectiveness of its military and civil efforts

http://csis.org/publication/overseas-contingency-operations-oco-and-uncertain-cost-us-wars

Indian Ocean Region Strategic Net Assessment: The South Asia Subregion (Anthony H. Cordesman, CSIS)

The South Asia subregion presents a moderate overall risk within the strategic context of the Indian Ocean Region (IOR). Two key issues take precedent: 1) the standing risk of armed conflict between the nuclear-armed forces of India and Pakistan, and 2) India’s potential to emerge as a dominant regional sea-air power, as well as a rival of China’s in both military and economic terms, in light of Chinese military and economic expansion into the region.

http://csis.org/publication/indian-ocean-region-strategic-net-assessment-south-asia-subregion

The Saudi and Gulf Perspective on President Obama’s Visit (Anthony H. Cordesman, CSIS)

Americans have never been particularly good at seeing the world from the viewpoint of other countries. Perhaps it is the production of distance and two oceans, or never having had modern war on U.S. soil, but it seems exceptionally hard for Americans to realize that even friends and allies can have different strategic perspectives, different priorities, and values that differ strikingly from those of a Western secular democracy.

http://csis.org/publication/saudi-and-gulf-perspective-president-obamas-visit

Syria and Iraq: How Should These Wars End? (Anthony H. Cordesman, CSIS)

Grand strategy seems to be a forgotten concept in the wars in Iraq and Syria — and in the conflicts in Libya and Yemen as well. The tactical military focus of these wars is usually on finding some way to strengthen allied ground forces from day-to-day, or on defeating ISIL in the next battle or in reaching an objective.

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The Comparative Metrics of ISIS and "Failed State Wars" in Syria and Iraq (Anthony H. Cordesman, CSIS)

The fighting against ISIS/ISIL/Daesh has become at least three different and interrelated conflicts: a fight against Daesh, a low-level sectarian and ethnic civil conflict in Iraq, and an intense civil war in Syria. It is also, however, part of a far broader regional and global conflict against terrorism and extremism; part of the competition between the United States and Russia; part of the competition between the majority of the Arab world and Iran; and part of an emerging struggle for Kurdish identity, and some form of “federalism” and/or independence that involves a range of separate Kurdish identities, Turkey, and the Arab world.

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Afghanistan: Shift to a “Conditions–Based” Strategy or Lose the “Forgotten War” (Anthony H. Cordesman, CSIS)

The Obama Administration’s lack of focus on the Afghan War is symbolized by the fact that it is no longer even listed as one of the “Top Issues” on the Department of Defense’s website. It only gets passing attention on the White House’s website—to the point where the “defense” section still refers to the President as having, “Developed a comprehensive new strategy on Afghanistan and Pakistan and authorized deployment of more than 33,000 "surge" troops to Afghanistan”—a statement that dates back to March 27, 2009. Another White House Fact Sheet dates back to May 27, 2004 and is entitled “Bringing the U.S. War in Afghanistan to a Responsible End.”

http://csis.org/publication/afghanistan-shift-conditions-based-strategy-or-lose-forgotten-war

Afghanistan: The Uncertain Impact of a Year of Transition (Anthony H. Cordesman, CSIS)

Previous Burke Chair reports have addressed the fact that it has now been a year since U.S. and International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) combat forces formally left Afghanistan. These reports have also addressed the fact that a wide range of indicators warn that the Afghan government and Afghan forces are losing at many levels: politics, governance, economics, security, and popular support.

http://csis.org/publication/afghanistan-uncertain-impact-year-transition-0

The Comparative Metrics of ISIS and "Failed State Wars" in Syria and Iraq (Anthony H. Cordesman, CSIS)

http://csis.org/publication/comparative-metrics-isis-and-failed-state-wars-syria-and-iraq

The Strategic Impact of Iran’s Rising Petroleum Exports After Sanctions (Anthony H. Cordesman, CSIS)

The decades since the first major oil embargo in 1973 have shown all too clearly that no one can predict oil and gas prices and petroleum export revenues. This is particularly true when oil supply is so high, key exporters like Iraq and Libya are at war, production is partly driven by the tensions between Iran and its Arab neighbors, new sources of production are coming on line, and the world seems be headed for a China-driven collapse in the growth of petroleum demand.

http://csis.org/publication/strategic-impact-irans-rising-petroleum-exports-after-sanctions

Key Trends in the Uncertain Metrics of Terrorism (Anthony H. Cordesman, CSIS)

It is now some 15 years since 9/11, the United States has not only conducted a constant campaign against terrorism since that time, but has been at war with violent Islamist extremists in Afghanistan, then Iraq, and then Syria. It has gone from counterterrorism to a mix of counterterrorism and counterinsurgency in these three states where no meaningful boundaries exist between them while it increasingly is a partner in counterterrorism with nations in Europe, Africa, and Asia and throughout much of the Islamic world.

http://csis.org/publication/key-trends-metrics-terrorism

Creeping Incrementalism: U.S. Forces and Strategy in Iraq and Syria from 2011 to 2016: An Update (Anthony H. Cordesman, CSIS)

http://csis.org/publication/creeping-incrementalism-us-forces-and-strategy-iraq-and-syria-2011-2016-update

Iran After Implementation Day (Anthony H. Cordesman, CSIS)

http://csis.org/publication/iran-after-implementation-day

The U.S., the West, and Islam: The Real Meaning of ISIS's Expansion into Turkey, Afghanistan, and Indonesia (Anthony H. Cordesman, CSIS)

http://csis.org/publication/us-west-and-islam-real-meaning-isiss-expansion-turkey-afghanistan-and-indonesia

North Korea’s “Thermonuclear” Test: The Paradox of Small, developing Nuclear Forces (Anthony H. Cordesman, CSIS)

http://csis.org/publication/north-koreas-thermonuclear-test-paradox-small-developing-nuclear-forces

(Istituto fondamentale - Middle East) Iraqi Stability and the “ISIS War” (Anthony H. Cordesman, CSIS)

http://csis.org/publication/iraqi-stability-and-isis-war

(Istituto fondamentale - Global) The Afghan War and the Quarterly Report on Freedom’s Sentinel (Anthony H. Cordesman, CSIS)

http://csis.org/publication/afghan-war-and-quarterly-report-freedoms-sentinel

(Istituto fondamentale - Global) The Iran Nuclear Agreement and Iranian Energy Exports (Anthony H. Cordesman, CSIS)

http://csis.org/publication/iran-nuclear-agreement-and-iranian-energy-exports

(Istituto fondamentale - Global) The Afghan Campaign and the Death of Mullah Omar (Anthony H. Cordesman, CSIS)

http://csis.org/publication/afghan-campaign-and-death-mullah-omar