European Geostrategy: European military capabilities and future conflict (Bastian Giegerich, IISS)

EU member states are currently pulled in different directions: for some, rebuilding the credibility of conventional deterrence and collective defence in light of a resurgent Russia leads to a renewed focus on NATO whereas others remain keen to engage in multifaceted crisis management operations, and are prepared to ramp up efforts in defence capacity building or train and equip missions for which the EU seems to be a more natural fit.

This mix of push and pull factors unfolds against a background of long and deep defence cuts in Europe which are only just coming to an end. A recoil from substantial military commitments can furthermore be observed in many European electorates, putting the spectre of significant future military action in doubt. Externally, the trajectory of future security threats and challenges remains highly uncertain. Signs proliferate that Europe might have to accept that the US has little choice but to turn into a swing security provider across multiple regions: American military might is unlikely to be available to simultaneously underpin security at home as well as the security of Asia, Europe and the Middle East. US attention and assets are likely to swing even more between varied demands, both in terms of geography and function, than they are now.

https://www.iiss.org/en/expert%20commentary/blogsections/2016-c3cf/march-0c14/european-military-capabilities-and-future-conflict-eea3