China’s changing economy: implications for its carbon dioxide emissions (Fergus Green, Nicholas Stern, Grantham Research Institute LSE)

China is undergoing another major structural transformation. It is moving towards a new development model, focused on achieving better quality growth that is more sustainable and inclusive.

It is now clear that the rapid rate of growth in the first part of the century (2000–2013) represents a distinct and exceptional phase in China’s developmental history. During this old growth model, very high levels of greenhouse gases emitted were linked closely with the energy-intensive, heavy industry-based growth model pursued at that time.

As China’s government finalises the country’s 13th Five Year Plan for economic development (2016–2020), this article takes stock of recent changes in China’s economy and energy system since the turn of the century, and looks ahead to the likely trajectory of China’s emissions over the next decade.

http://www.lse.ac.uk/GranthamInstitute/publication/chinas-changing-economy/