The rise of Donald Trump as the odds-on favorite to win the Republican presidential nomination may play havoc with the familiar political map of red and blue states in November’s election. Much has been made about Trump’s potential success in previously Democratic leaning and older mostly white Rust Belt states like Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. But Trump also has the potential to lose a number of previously Republican-leaning or swing states in the South and West. The latter outcome has both a demographic element—the continued rise of Democratic-leaning minorities, Hispanics, blacks, and Asians in a number of Sun Belt states—and an enthusiasm element: possible unprecedented turnout among Hispanics and other minorities to vote against Trump and in favor of likely Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton.
http://www.brookings.edu/blogs/the-avenue/posts/2016/03/21-trump-arizona-democrats-frey
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