Too Soon for a Rally: Brazil’s Long Road Ahead (Monica de Bolle, PIIE)

Markets tend to swoon in times of political crisis. It is therefore odd that they are rallying strongly in Brazil by assuming that any change in government would be better than the status quo. Much as one might be tempted to buy into this notion, markets are most likely wrong. When things can’t seem to get worse, they often do anyway.

http://blogs.piie.com/realtime/?p=5455&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=%24%7Bfeed%7D&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+%24%7BRealTime%7D+%28%24%7BRealTime%7D%29

The Rubble of Argentina’s Debt Settlement (Anna Gelpern, PIIE)

After a 14-year standoff, Argentina has agreed to settle with the biggest holdout creditors who bought bonds on which it defaulted in 2001, letting the new government in Buenos Aires resume the life of an ordinary sovereign in the global capital markets. The $4.65 billion settlement follows more than a dozen agreements with smaller holdouts since the start of 2016 and estimated at over $1.5 billion. It is good enough for Argentina, and very good indeed for some of the holdouts—but the entire episode, and its conclusion, is bad for the rest of the world and for the international financial system.

http://blogs.piie.com/realtime/?p=5451&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=%24%7Bfeed%7D&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+%24%7BRealTime%7D+%28%24%7BRealTime%7D%29

Europe’s Refugee Crisis to Worsen with Spring Weather (Jacob Funk Kirkegaard, PIIE)

With spring approaching, and with it clearer skies in the Aegean Sea, rising numbers of refugees will be crossing into Greece and elsewhere in Europe in coming months. A series of EU summits planned in March must deal urgently with the continent’s migration emergency, and there are no good options. Two distinct plans have emerged, however.

http://blogs.piie.com/realtime/?p=5447&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=%24%7Bfeed%7D&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+%24%7BRealTime%7D+%28%24%7BRealTime%7D%29

PIIE Chart: Progress on Corruption Varies 25 Years After Communism (Simeon Djankov, Owen Hauck, PIIE)

http://blogs.piie.com/realtime/?p=5430&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=%24%7Bfeed%7D&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+%24%7BRealTime%7D+%28%24%7BRealTime%7D%29

How Much Global Fiscal Stimulus? (Caroline Freund, Paolo Mauro,Jan Zilinsky, PIIE)

http://blogs.piie.com/realtime/?p=5426&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=%24%7Bfeed%7D&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+%24%7BRealTime%7D+%28%24%7BRealTime%7D%29

Five Reasons to Fear a Brexit (Pedro Nicolaci da Costa, PIIE)

The fight over a potential British exit from the European Union is gaining momentum and so are warnings against it from economists and business leaders about the potential damage to trade, confidence, and growth.

In an interview this week, Adam Posen, president of the Peterson Institute for International Economics and a former member of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee, elaborated on some of the sentiments driving the push for a “Brexit.” He also discussed the extensive negative consequences such a break, still seen as the less likely outcome of an upcoming referendum, would have on the United Kingdom’s economy.

http://blogs.piie.com/realtime/?p=5423&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=%24%7Bfeed%7D&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+%24%7BRealTime%7D+%28%24%7BRealTime%7D%29

In Defense of European Deposit Insurance (Nicolas Véron, PIIE)

http://blogs.piie.com/realtime/?p=5420&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=%24%7Bfeed%7D&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+%24%7BRealTime%7D+%28%24%7BRealTime%7D%29

An Important IMF Reform (Olivier Blanchard, PIIE)

The world became a bit safer last month—at least at one margin. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) adopted a lending reform with important implications for the future stability of the world economy.

http://blogs.piie.com/realtime/?p=5411&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=%24%7Bfeed%7D&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+%24%7BRealTime%7D+%28%24%7BRealTime%7D%29

Bail-in Securities and the Current Equity Market Turmoil (Avinash Persaud, PIIE)

http://blogs.piie.com/realtime/?p=5410&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=%24%7Bfeed%7D&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+%24%7BRealTime%7D+%28%24%7BRealTime%7D%29