Latin America’s Wide-Open Electoral Season (Matthew Taylor, Council on Foreign Relations)

http://blogs.cfr.org/oneil/2016/12/15/latin-americas-wide-open-electoral-season/

Michel Temer’s Shrinking Presidency (Matthew Taylor, Council on Foreign Relations)

http://blogs.cfr.org/oneil/2016/11/30/michel-temers-shrinking-presidency/

Corruption, FATCA, and the Tightening Dragnet Around Brazilian Offshore Accounts (Matthew Taylor, Council on Foreign Relations)

http://blogs.cfr.org/development-channel/2016/10/24/corruption-fatca-and-the-tightening-dragnet-around-brazilian-offshore-accounts/

Five Questions After Colombia’s Surprising Vote Against Peace (Matthew Taylor, CFR)

Pollsters’ best bets were radically overturned in Colombia Sunday, as widespread apathy and torrential rains dampened turnout in the referendum on the peace deal. Opponents of the deal appeared as surprised as anyone at their own victory, triumphing by fewer than 55,000 votes in a country of 33 million voters. Abstention topped 60 percent, and the “No” side won with the support of less than one-fifth of total voters, by a margin of 0.16 percent of those eligible to vote.

http://blogs.cfr.org/oneil/2016/10/03/five-questions-after-colombias-surprising-vote-against-peace/

Winning the Peace: Paying for Colombia’s Peace Deal (Matthew Taylor, CFR)

http://blogs.cfr.org/oneil/2016/09/22/winning-the-peace-paying-for-colombias-peace-deal/

Brazil’s Agonizing August (Matthew Taylor, CFR)

The coming month will be a stressful one for Brazilians.

http://blogs.cfr.org/oneil/2016/07/26/brazils-agonizing-august/

Corruption, Politics, and Corporate Transparency in Latin America (Matthew Taylor, CFR)

It is Latin America’s anticorruption season. Deep beneath the waves of revulsion about scandal, graft, and the general filthiness of local politics has been a profound concern with democracy. In particular, there is a growing awareness that the dangerous liaisons between corruption and electoral finance threaten the stability and legitimacy of elected governments in the region. While there is plenty of good news about the impressive corruption busters who are shaking up settled patterns of corruption and impunity in the region, many of the underlying links between corporate transparency, corruption, and campaign finance remain deeply troubling and potentially destabilizing.

http://blogs.cfr.org/oneil/2016/07/21/corruption-politics-and-corporate-transparency-in-latin-america/

Latin America’s Savings Problem (Matthew Taylor, CFR)

Savings are essential for growth: domestic savings finance productive investment, provide a safety net for the future, and are strongly associated with long-term growth prospects. Sadly, a new report from the Inter-American Development Bank (IADB) makes the convincing case that Latin America has fallen behind, with repercussions for development in the region for decades to come.

http://blogs.cfr.org/oneil/2016/07/14/latin-americas-savings-problem/

Venezuela’s Woes Reach Mercosur (Matthew Taylor, CFR)

Mercosur is under considerable internal strain. As at other times in the trade bloc’s history, shifting political winds and changing trade priorities have placed the member countries at loggerheads. The five-member organization is in the midst of what is perhaps the most severe of its periodic identity crises, exacerbated by the Left’s waning power in the region, the rise of the Pacific Alliance, and renewed member interest in external trade agreements.

http://blogs.cfr.org/oneil/2016/07/07/venezuelas-woes-reach-mercosur/

Brazil’s Challenging Distractions (Matthew Taylor, CFR)

http://blogs.cfr.org/oneil/2016/06/15/brazils-challenging-distractions/

The Significance of Peru’s June 5 Election (Matthew Taylor, CFR)

While the world is distracted by Brazil’s impeachment drama, Venezuela’s impending meltdown, and Cuba’s promising détente with Washington, a potentially significant election campaign is underway in Peru that may have long-term implications for the success of the region’s “right turn.” Two candidates with robust neoliberal credentials are neck and neck in the second round contest that will take take place on June 5, and will determine who governs the country through 2021. Perhaps because of the similarities in the likely economic policies of the two contenders, not much foreign media attention has been focused on the election: regardless of who wins, Peru seems likely to continue with outward looking initiatives, such as the Trans-Pacific Partnership and the Pacific Alliance, while practicing market-friendly policies at home. But precisely because the economic policies of the two candidates are so similar—prominent Peruvian columnist and political scientist Alberto Vergara notes that whichever candidate governs Peru beginning in late July, their cabinet will be composed of technocrats who could serve their rival—observers have not focused on the underlying significance of this election to the democratic legitimacy of Latin America’s new rightward turn

http://blogs.cfr.org/oneil/2016/05/12/the-significance-of-perus-june-5-election/

Brazil’s Impending Hangover (Matthew Taylor, CFR)

After months of suspense, President Dilma Rousseff’s impeachment looks set to proceed in a floor vote in the Chamber of Deputies on Sunday, April 17. At present, impeachment seems more likely than not: Vice President Michel Temer and his allies have overcome many of the political hurdles to impeachment by skillfully creating a bandwagon effect among legislators, in part by arguing that there is little point in continued support for the outgoing Rousseff and that now is the time to make sweet deals with the incoming Temer administration. This week’s desertions mean that of the seven largest parties in Congress, only one (the PT) still supports the president, while five are in opposition (PMDB, PSDB, PP, PSB, and DEM) and one is still officially undecided (PR).

http://blogs.cfr.org/oneil/2016/04/14/brazils-impending-hangover/

Macri’s Surprising Honeymoon (Matthew Taylor, CFR)

By all accounts, Mauricio Macri has had a remarkable honeymoon since he was inaugurated December 10, quickly moving to revise Argentina’s economic policies, restructure its relations with the world, and tackle a variety of rule of law challenges, ranging from corruption to the drug trade. President Obama’s trip to Argentina last week was in many ways the capstone to Macri’s dynamic first hundred days in office. The visit signaled a generational shift in U.S. policy toward Latin America, seeking to repair some of the worst damage done by U.S. support of the military dictatorship that took office when Obama was a teenager, but Obama and his entourage of more than four hundred business representatives were even more convincing in their strong praise for the Macri administration’s new openness to foreign investors.

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Do Brazil’s Street Protests Spell the End for Rousseff? (Matthew Taylor , CFR)

Brazil’s drama has escalated at breakneck speed. On March 4, former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva was detained for questioning.

http://blogs.cfr.org/oneil/2016/03/17/do-brazils-street-protests-spell-the-end-for-rousseff/

The Long Arm of U.S. Law and Latin America’s Corruption Malaise (Matthew Taylor, CFR)

Latin America’s corruption scandals of the past two years are moving slowly toward resolution. As they move forward, it is interesting to note that in a region that has been particularly protective of its sovereignty, foreign cooperation has played a significant role, whether it is via bilateral exchanges between prosecutors, mutual legal assistance treaties, or even United Nations support, as in the case of Guatemala’s International Commission Against Impunity (CICIG). But these various forms of international cooperation may soon be joined by another international anti-corruption effort that is less well understood in Latin America: prosecution by U.S. attorneys.

http://blogs.cfr.org/oneil/2016/03/01/the-long-arm-of-u-s-law-and-latin-americas-corruption-malaise/

Seven Uncertainties in Lenten Brazil (Matthew Taylor, CFR)

Brazil is getting back to business after an exuberant carnival that brought irrepressible Brazilian humor to bear on serious national travails, including the Zika virus, Lula’s legal troubles, and the Olympics. Reality’s bite may be harsh after two months’ holiday respite from the high political drama of 2015. The coming year will be jam-packed, including the highly contested election later this week of new party leadership, a PMDB party leadership convention in March, the April deadline for ministers and governors to step down if they are running for office, the August Olympics, and the October municipal elections. Layered over these events will be the ongoing Lava Jato and Zelotes corruption investigations, campaigns against the Aedes Aegypti mosquito, and of course, the continued drama of Chamber of Deputies’ president Eduardo Cunha’s cage match with President Rousseff.

http://blogs.cfr.org/oneil/2016/02/16/seven-uncertainties-in-lenten-brazil/

The Political Salience of Latin Americans’ Perceptions of Corruption (Matthew Taylor, CFR)

Once a year, policymakers and the press are forcibly reminded of the terrible costs of corruption. This year, it fell on January 27, when Transparency International’s Corruption Perceptions Index (CPI) was released, inciting the ritual gnashing of teeth and beating of chests about relative national corruption gains and losses.

http://blogs.cfr.org/development-channel/2016/02/09/the-political-salience-of-latin-americans-perceptions-of-corruption/