Australia budget gets China gift, may save credit ratings crown (Reuters)

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-australia-economy-ratings-idUSKBN12X0DU?il=0

Launching a new chapter in Australia–Israel relations (Anthony Bergin, The Strategist)

http://www.aspistrategist.org.au/launching-new-chapter-australia-israel-relations/

The wattle and the olive: A new chapter in Australia and Israel working together (Anthony Bergin, Efraim Inbar, ASPI)

https://www.aspi.org.au/publications/the-wattle-and-the-olive-a-new-chapter-in-australia-and-israel-working-together

Prioritising cyber between strategic partners: the US–Australia Cyber Dialogue (Tobias Feakin, The Strategist)

http://www.aspistrategist.org.au/prioritising-cyber-strategic-partners-us-australia-cyber-dialogue/

Australia’s Foreign and Trade White Paper: time to get real (Mike Scrafton, The Strategist)

Realists argue there’s only one genuine philosophical principle to guide a nation’s foreign policy. In the first recorded debate between realists and idealists, Thucydides reported the Athenians telling the Melians, ‘the strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must’. Thucydides foreshadowed the realist worldview that nations, ‘are concerned with their own security, act in pursuit of their own national interests, and struggle for power’. Realists believe that the international environment is anarchic and that, consistent with their capacity and opportunities, states will always act in their own economic, ideological and security interests. Philosophically, the new Foreign and Trade White Paper (FTWP) should be firmly based in realism.

http://www.aspistrategist.org.au/time-get-real/

Australia and New Zealand—so near yet so far (Mark Thomson, The Strategist)

Australia and New Zealand see the world and respond to it differently. That’s not to say there aren’t areas of agreement—free trade, democracy, human rights—but when it comes to defence and foreign policy, there are some important and growing differences.

http://www.aspistrategist.org.au/australia-new-zealand-near-yet-far/

Australia in the year of global uncertainties (East Asia Forum)

The year that saw Brexit, Donald Trump’s presidential candidacy and the sharp rise of far-right nationalist politicians from Germany to Australia is drawing to a close, but its legacies are more difficult to foretell.

http://www.eastasiaforum.org/2016/10/17/australia-in-the-year-of-global-uncertainties/

News by The Strategist

Duterte changes the South China Sea tone (Graeme Dobell)

Rodrigo Duterte is a maddening, murderous maverick who’s achieved a weird feat in the South China Sea (SCS)—delivering benefits to both China and the United States. His swing towards China offers Beijing all sorts of goodies, from the possibility of a bilateral deal in the SCS to a chance to unbalance the US rebalance.

http://www.aspistrategist.org.au/duterte-changes-south-china-sea-tone/

Colombia’s president sells the skin before catching the bear (Cesar Alvarez)

This year won’t only be remembered by who gets elected to the Oval Office. It’ll also be known as the year the Colombian public rejected a hard-fought peace deal with the leftist guerrilla group, the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC).

http://www.aspistrategist.org.au/colombias-president-sells-skin-catching-bear/

The rules of extraction: Australia and the Timor Sea (Elisabeth Buchan)

On 19 September, Timor-Leste won a minor victory in its ongoing dispute with Australia over rights to resources in the Timor Sea. The UN Conciliation Commission, convened under the Annex V conciliation proceedings of UN Convention of the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), rejected Australia’s bid to block proceedings.

http://www.aspistrategist.org.au/rules-extraction-australia-timor-sea/

Are economists China-blind? (James Laurenceson, East Asia Forum)

According to some in Australia’s strategic community, economists just don’t get China. Not in respect to the important stuff anyway.

http://www.eastasiaforum.org/2016/10/09/are-economists-china-blind/

Myanmar: a golden opportunity for Australia’s Human Rights Council bid (Thulasi Wigneswaran, The Strategist)

Australia officially launched its candidacy for membership of the United Nations Human Rights Council for the 2018–2020 term in October last year. If elected to a seat in the 2017 vote, Minister for Foreign Affairs Julie Bishop said Australia would aim to ‘advance human rights in practical ways that have far reaching systematic effects’. Given that it’ll be up against France and Spain, with a reliable bloc of EU votes, Australia will need to prove its genuine interests to the claim. One way to do so would be to turn its attention to Myanmar—where human rights concerns are plentiful—to address ongoing violations in the country.

http://www.aspistrategist.org.au/myanmar-golden-opportunity-australias-human-rights-council-bid/

Reviewing intelligence: send in the red team (Andrew Davies, The Strategist)

By all accounts, there’s to be another review of Australia’s intelligence agencies in the near future. The ‘major independent review’ will be the third in 15 years and it’s variously reported that the focus will be on cyber threats or the balance between short-term operational counter-terrorism and long-term strategic intelligence or, well, pretty much everything.

http://www.aspistrategist.org.au/reviewing-intelligence-send-in-red/

Dalits and Aboriginals: Rebuilding India and Australia (Devanuru Mahadeva, Al Jazeera)

A Dalit author issues a call to rebuild India and Australia with humanity not discrimination at their core.

http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/features/2016/09/dalits-aboriginals-rebuilding-india-australia-160928153557057.html

Replacing the Rhino (Malcolm Davis, The Strategist)

The 2016 Defence White Paper (DWP16) signals that ‘options to replace the Super Hornets in the late 2020s will be considered in the early 2020s in the light of developments in technology and the strategic environment and will be informed by our experience in operating the Joint Strike Fighters’. As Andrew Davies and I previously argued, rather than rushing such a decision, Australia should pause to consider exploiting the revolutionary potential offered by Unmanned Combat Air Systems (UCAS). In this regard, it’s worth looking at the USAF’s Air Superiority 2030 (AS-2030) Flight Plan, which is the latest American perspective on the future of air power.

http://www.aspistrategist.org.au/replacing-the-rhino/

Terrorist attack in Minto, 10 September 2016 (Jacinta Carroll, ASPI)

On 10 September 2016, a 22-year-old Australian national, Ihsas Khan, attacked Wayne Greenhalgh on a street in Minto, southwest Sydney. Khan stabbed Greenhalgh multiple times with a knife, inflicting serious but not critical wounds. Khan was arrested and charged with terrorism offences. This was Australia's fourth terrorist attack in two years.

This CT Quick Look paper highlights the key issues and assesses the relevance for affected stakeholders including recommendations for government.

https://www.aspi.org.au/publications/terrorist-attack-in-minto,-10-september-2016

We should 'trust but verify' on China's investment plans (Paul Barnes, ASPI)

https://www.aspi.org.au/opinion/we-should-trust-but-verify-on-chinas-investment-plans

Asian integration a key part of Australia’s economic transition (Shiro Armstrong, East Asia Forum)

Australia, as in the past, has the potential to play a role in shaping the Asian economic cooperation agenda in a way that deepens regional economic linkages and lifts the growth potential of Asian economies. As the world’s economic gravity continues to shift to Asia, Australia will benefit greatly from being an integral part of Asia’s economic transformation

http://www.eastasiaforum.org/2016/05/28/why-asian-integration-is-a-key-part-of-australias-economic-transition/

What the Australian public really think about Chinese investment in our maritime ports (Hannah Bretherton, ASPI The Strategist)

In March the US State Department dropped a line to the Australian people via The Australian newspaper to let us know how fearful we are of Chinese investment. To illustrate their point, they homed in on the deal that saw Chinese company, Landbridge, acquire an 80 percent share of the lease to operate the Port of Darwin

http://www.aspistrategist.org.au/what-the-australian-public-really-think-about-chinese-investment-in-our-maritime-ports/

Australia's China gamble (J Berkshire Miller, Al Jazeera)

Over the past several years, Australia has been trying to get the mix right with its foreign policy calculus. On one hand, Canberra understandably has a strong desire to capitalise on the tantalising economic opportunities borne out of China's rise.

Continue reading here ...

China Looms Large in Australia's New Strategy (Richard Fontaine, The National Interest)

http://nationalinterest.org/feature/china-looms-large-australias-new-strategy-15595

Is Australia’s Defence White Paper achievable? (Sam Bateman, East Asia Forum)

Australia’s new Defence White Paper provides for a massive increase in defence spending, largely to acquire new maritime capabilities. But questions surround whether this plan will be achievable and whether the paper’s long-term strategic outlook is valid.

http://www.eastasiaforum.org/2016/03/24/is-australias-defence-white-paper-achievable/