Thursday, 14 July 2016

Will China submit to South China Sea verdict ? (N.S.Venkataraman, Nandini Voice for The Deprived)

The verdict given by the United Nations appointed International court of Arbitration on China’s claims in the South China Sea has been rejected by China.

The essential aspect of the verdict is that the judges have ruled that there is no legal basis for China to claim nearly 90% of South China sea. The judges have further asked China to scale back the military expansion in the area, so that sovereign rights of Philippines would be protected.

Criticising the verdict, China has gone to the extent of attributing motives to the judges who delivered the verdict. However, nobody is surprised at the aggressive stand that China has taken after the verdict was pronounced.

Both parties may have valid points:

As always ,in all such disputes between the countries ,there may be several valid arguments in support of their stand by the parties involved.

The dispute over the south China Sea has been a long drawn issue, beginning in the year 1947, when China drew out an imaginary U shaped line made of 9 dashes, covering the area which China laid claims to in the South China Sea.

Even as China’s claims have been disputed and the case was being heard by the international court, China has gone ahead to consolidate it’s hold over the area , with least regard for the objections from nearby countries such as Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia, Taiwan, Japan and of course Philippines. China claimed that it was right and built a web of artificial islands with runways and light houses. It has chased away ships and planes and fishing boats from other nations. Obviously, China is determined to stand by it’s claims.

In this case, though China has received adverse verdict, it is not alone. For whatever reasons, it has received support from several countries such as Angola, Liberia, Madagascar, Papua New Guinea, Senegal, Malawi, Tanzania, Zambia, Mauritania, Cameroon, Ethiopia, South Africa, Kenya and Zimbabwe amongst others and these countries have expressed their support for China's stance.

Even Taiwan, which is strongly opposed to China , has slammed the arbitration ruling, adding that they were not consulted on the case despite being claimants in the Spratly Islands.

Is it feasible to solve international disputes in peaceful way ?:

There are several issues between countries such as Kashmir dispute between India and Pakistan, Palestine issue between Israel and Arabs, which have defied solutions for long.

Repeated wars have taken place with loss of lives, as efforts to find mutually acceptable solution for the disputes by discussions and dialogue have failed.

In such circumstances, an arbitration by U N appointed international court is the only way of finding solution for the disputes.

But, in all probability , the nation which would receive a favourable verdict would hail the international court and the other which would lose the case would dub the verdict as unfair and would reject the verdict.

As such international court has no enforcement mechanism, the verdict just end up as academic exercise.

Not only China in this case, but in the past ,several other countries have refused to accept such international verdict on various matter.

Will China care about world opinion ?:
In all such cases, United Nations has remained as a toothless body and has been reduced to a mere discussion forum. Some quarters may argue that any adverse verdict by the international court would affect the fair name and reputation of the country that may reject the verdict but it may not care. China is likely to follow the same pattern.

In the past, China has made huge claims on Indian territory and a war took place when China forcibly occupied the land in the Himalayan region in India. It continues to occupy the area inspite of protests from India. China now claims that Arunachal Pradesh province in India belongs to it.

Earlier, China forcibly occupied Tibet driving out several Tibetans as refugees including the Dalai Lama. The world then condemned China’s aggression but China did not care. China now has disputes with countries like Japan and Vietnam on territorial matters.

While the so called world opinion may be critical of China, the fact is that every country in the world including India whose territory China is now occupying and United States which is critical about China’s authoritarian rule in China, is keen to have strong economic relationship with China, as it is emerging as Asia’s super power. It appears that China has the last laugh.

Is might only right?

Obviously, no country in the world is willing to unreservedly accept a verdict by international court in case of disputes. It appears the world is still going through a process, where only might is right .China has good understanding of the ground realities.

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