Geek of the week: conditional probabilities and MH370 (Andrew Davies, ASPI the Strategist)

Recent reporting that the search for missing Malaysian Airlines Flight 370 might be soon called off got me thinking about the methodology of search. For my sins, I spent time in operations research in my early days in Defence. It was back in the ‘Defence of Australia’ doctrine days, and our group was working with what’s now the Defence Science and Technology Group (DST Group) on a ‘wide area surveillance study’. Surveillance isn’t the same as search but in a slowly evolving situation they’re described by similar mathematics.

http://www.aspistrategist.org.au/geek-week-conditional-probabilities-mh370/