March’s jobs gains, released this morning, mark 66 straight months of significant positive jobs growth in the U.S., with nearly three times as many jobs added in March 2016 compared to March 2015. Each month, many thousands of workers across the U.S. lose their jobs, while others find themselves newly employed. The net number of jobs created or lost in all this activity is an important indicator of the nation’s economic health. But the raw number of jobs created or lost from one month to the next doesn’t say much about the underlying economy. Rather, many of these month-to-month changes are the result of predictable seasonal fluctuations. For example, the fact that the last ten Januarys witnessed the economy shedding over 2.5 million jobs simply reflects the fact that retailers slow down after the holidays and says nothing about broader economic performance.
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Jonathan Wright. Johns Hopkins University
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